互补效应还是替代效应?——当前我国服务贸易和货物贸易关系的实证研究  

Complementary Effect or Substitution Effect:An empirical study of the relationship between China's service trade and goods trade

作　　者：武斐婕[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学国际贸易学院,山西太原030006 [2]中国社会科学院,北京102488

出　　处：《山西大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2015年第2期120-126,共7页Journal of Shanxi University(Philosophy and Social Science Edition)

摘　　要：本文根据1982-2013年度数据,运用VAR协整模型对我国服务贸易和货物贸易的总量和差额关系进行了实证分析。通过总量分析发现,长期来看,我国服务贸易和货物贸易总量之间存在协整关系;而脉冲响应函数和方差分解结果显示:在短期,由于货物贸易对服务的引致需求,促使服务贸易增长较快,而我国服务贸易对货物贸易的拉动作用比较弱;对我国服务贸易和货物贸易差额的分析显示二者之间并无替代关系。因此,当前要发挥我国在服务贸易方面的后发优势,提高服务贸易的准入度,提升我国服务业的水平,从而促进我国服务出口,改变其逆差不断扩大的现状。Using the VAR eointegration model, this paper reviews the total amounts and balance correlation between services trade and goods trade during the period of 1982 to 2013 in China. The total amounts analysis shows that, in the long run, there is a cointegration relationship between China＇ s services trade and goods trade;the impulse re- sponse function and variance decomposition results show that, in the short term, the service trade is growing fast for the induced demand for service caused by the increasing goods trade, but the development of service trade has a weak effect on the promotion of goods trade. The balance analysis of services and goods trade shows that the substi- tution relationship doesn＇ t exist in goods and services trade. Therefore, for China, an urgent matter at the moment is to realize the coordinated development of trade in services and goods and to improve service trade level by taking late dominant advantage of China＇ s trade in services.

关 键 词：服务贸易 货物贸易 互补 替代 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F752.65[经济管理—国际贸易]