利率市场化能提高外汇冲销操作的有效性吗——基于修正BGT模型的实证比较  

Could the Reformation of Interest Rates Liberalization Improve the Effectiveness of Sterilization Operation on Foreign Exchange Reserve in China?——Based on Empirical Comparison of Modified BGT Model

作　　者：王婧[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院研究生院数量经济与技术经济系

出　　处：《财经科学》2015年第3期1-13,共13页Finance & Economics

摘　　要：根据2002年1月—2014年6月我国国际资本流动和国内货币供给的实际情况,构造两个修正的BGT模型,采用OLS方法进行估计对比研究,实证检验实行利率市场化改革对我国冲销干预货币政策的效力。估计结果显示:利率市场化程度越高,抵消系数越小,同时冲销系数越大,说明利率市场化改革能有效提高货币政策的冲销干预能力和独立性,利率汇率传导渠道也更加通畅。因此,我国应积极推进利率市场化进程,同时进一步合理扩大资本账户开放的程度,加强藏汇于民建设,积极推动金融市场全面对外开放的步伐。Based on two revised BGT models, this paper undertakes an empirical comparable investigation to e- valuate the different effectiveness of China＇s sterilizations and capital mobility regulations, measured by the ster- ilization and offset coefficients respectively, using monthly data from January 2002 to June 2014. We find that the effectiveness of Chiua＇s sterilization is more perfect if China undertake the reform of Interest rates liberaliza- tion successfully, and the transmission channel of Interest rate and exchange rate will be more smooth. So we should promote the reformation of Interest Rates Liberalization continually and further expand the reasonable degree of the opening of the capital accounts.

关 键 词：利率市场化改革 冲销干预 国际收支双顺差 外汇储备 货币政策 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]