基于门限模型的货币政策多目标可协调性研究——来自中国1993—2013年季度数据  

Research on Coordination of Monetary Policy Multi- objective Based on the Threshold Model:Quarterly Data from 1993 to 2013 in China

作　　者：刘超[1] 马文腾[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学经济管理学院 [2]山东财经大学金融学院

出　　处：《财经科学》2015年第3期33-44,共12页Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"货币政策多目标交互行为协调控制研究"(61273230);2012年度教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划"系统科学金融理论"(NCET-12-1027);山东省"金融产业优化与区域发展管理协同创新中心"项目暨山东省社科规划重大委任课题(14AWTJ01-4)

摘　　要：货币政策是一国进行宏观调控的重要手段,如何处理货币政策不同目标之间的矛盾和冲突,实现多目标之间的协调兼顾,对于更好地发挥货币政策的宏观调控作用、促进我国经济社会可持续发展具有重要意义。选取1993—2013年的季度数据为研究对象,确立我国货币政策多目标体系,以通货膨胀率为门限变量,构建基于动态数据的货币政策多目标体系门限回归模型,寻找通货膨胀率最优目标区间的交集。结果表明,通货膨胀与货币政策其他目标之间具有明显的非线性关系;通货膨胀率各最优目标区间存在交集,货币政策多目标之间具有可协调性,我国应该实施多重目标制的货币政策。Monetary policy is an important means for a country＇s c control. How to deal with the contradictions and conflicts organically and realize the coordination between different monetary policy objectives, has important significance for our country to play the role of macro- control and promote sustainable develop- ment of China＇s economic society . This paper focuses on quarterly data from 1993 to 2013 as the research ob- ject, estabhshes the multi - objective system of China＇s monetary pohcy. It builds the threshold regression mod- el about monetary policy multiple objectives based on dynamic data, regards the inflation rate as the threshold variable, and try to find the optimal target interval intersection about inflation rate. The results show that, there are evident nonlinear relationships betw^n inflation and other monetary pehcy objectives. The inflation rate has optimal objective interval intersection, and coordination among the goals of monetary pohcy exists. China should implement multiple objectives for monetary policy.

关 键 词：货币政策 多目标 可协调性 门限回归模型 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]