基于情景分析的应急资源保障能力评价模型研究  

Research on scenario analysis-based model for assessing emergency resources support capability

作　　者：张永领[1,2] 陈璐[2] 

机构地区：[1]河南理工大学安全与应急管理研究中心,河南焦作454000 [2]河南理工大学应急管理学院,河南焦作454000

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2014年第12期151-157,共7页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：河南省高校科技创新人才支持计划项目

摘　　要：为有针对性地加强应急资源储备、持续提高应急资源保障能力,需要开展不同情景下的应急资源保障能力评估。根据不同突发事件对应急资源的需求差异,设计6种具有代表性的需求情景;构建2层应急资源保障能力评价指标体系,其中包含4个一级指标,23个二级指标。建立基于最小判别法-改进逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS)的评价模型,并用算例验证模型。结果表明:引入绝对最优方案的改进TOPSIS法克服了传统方法的逆序问题,能够直接计算出综合保障能力数值;采用最小判别法不仅能直观看出影响最终保障能力的关键资源或者瓶颈资源,还能反映出应急资源保障能力的整体水平。将情景分析引入到评价模型中,则能够全方位评价应急资源的保障能力,从而使评价结果更接近实际需求。It is held by the authors that in order to scientifically strengthen emergency resources reserve and continuously improve the capability for providing emergency resources, the capability should be assessed regularly for different scenarios. Based on different demands for emergency resources, six demand scenarios were constructed. Then an evaluation index system of emergency resources support capacity was built, which contains 4 first level indicators and 23 secondary indicators. An evaluation model based on minimum discrimination and improved TOPSIS algorithm was built and tested with an example. The results show that with improved TOPSIS, the reverse problem in the traditional method can be avoided and comprehensive support capabilities can be calculated, that with minimum discrimination method people can not only visually identify the critical or bottlenecks resources that impact ultimate protection capabilities, but also estimate the overall level of protection capabilities, and that introducing the scenario analysis into the assessment model makes the results more comprehensive and conform fully with reality.

关 键 词：情景 应急资源 保障能力 评价模型 突发事件 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]