中国各省区财政偿债能力的比较与演进:2005—2012  

Comparison and Evolution of China's Provincial Fiscal Solvency Capability: 2005-2012

作　　者：郭玉清[1] 袁静[2] 李永宁[3] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津300071 [2]徽商银行阜阳分行,安徽阜阳236000 [3]天津工业大学经济学院,天津214122

出　　处：《财贸研究》2015年第1期80-90,共11页Finance and Trade Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目"中国地方财政隐性赤字的规模估测;风险量化与动态监管研究"(71203106);韩国高等教育财团(KFAS)"国际学者交流计划(ISEF)"2013-2014年度受益者基金项目;天津市"131创新人才"支持计划项目

摘　　要：借鉴国际信用评级机构的主权信用评级管理经验,设计中国各省区财政偿债能力的分层指标体系,测算2005—2012年省域财政偿债能力的客观熵值法量化评级结果。研究表明,中国省际财政偿债能力持续走低,并呈现出从东到西逐级递减的阶梯状布局,从中央到省级以下政府示范延伸的非对称财权事权分配框架使得西部基层政府的偿债能力尤其孱弱,而东、西两大区域内部的偿债能力正逐步趋同。为此,亟需在财政部门组建地方政府债务监控机构,实现地方财政偿债风险的区域联动预警,以"事前设限、事中控管、事后调整"的"三位一体"式动态监管策略,强化地方财政偿债能力。Reference to International Credit Rating Agencies＇ management experiences on sovereign credit rating, this paper designs hierarchical index system of China＇s provincial fiscal solvency capability and provides quantitative rating results during 2005 -2012 by entropy method. The results indicate that China＇s provincial fiscal solvency capability has been declining progressively, which forms declining ladder layout from east to west. The non - symmetric fiscal decentralization framework extends from central government to local government weakens the fiscal solvency capability of western grassroots governments and the inner fiscal solvency capability of east and west regions are both gradually convergent. China should set up local government liability monitor in public finance department to carry out risk warning mechanism of fiscal sol- vency capability across different regions. The three-in-one dynamic monitoring strategy is necessary for strengthening fiscal solvency capability of China＇s provinces.

关 键 词：地方政府债务 财政偿债能力 熵值法 量化评级 

分 类 号：F812.7[经济管理—财政学]