存款利率市场化与利率结构变动  

Deposit Interest Rate Liberalization and the Changing of Interest Rate Structure

作　　者：陆军[1,2] 赵越[1] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学岭南(大学)学院,广东广州510275 [2]中山大学银行研究中心,广东广州510275

出　　处：《财贸研究》2015年第1期106-115,共10页Finance and Trade Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"存款利率市场化与中国宏观金融风险研究"(71273287)

摘　　要：为了分析中国存款利率市场化后的利率结构变动,构建一个符合中国银行业特征的寡占模型,推导得出存、贷款利率和利差水平的长短期变动路径,并采用国际上已完成存款利率市场化的38个国家(地区)1973—2012年的面板数据,实证检验存款利率市场化对存、贷款利率和利差水平的长短期影响。理论推导和实证结果都表明:存款利率市场化初期,存款利率和贷款利率会同步上升,但存款利率比贷款利率上升得更快,存贷利差会收窄;存款利率市场化之后,长期来看,存、贷款利率会回落,利差水平会回升。In order to analyze the changing of Chinas interest rate structure after deposit rate liberaliza- tion, an oligopoly model is built to capture the characteristics of China＇s banking sector. Through deriva- tion, the shifting path of deposit rate, loan rate and the spread are reached. Using a panel date of 38 coun- tries which have accomplished deposit rate liberalization reform, the paper empirically tests long -run and short- run impact the reform brought to interest rate structure. Both derivation and empirical study shows that： after the deposit rate liberalization, both deposit rate and loan rate will rise in the short -run, but the former goes up faster than the latter, thus decreasing the spread, and deposit rate and loan rate will goes back down in the long -run, and the spread will rise.

关 键 词：存款利率市场化 寡占模型 利率结构 利差水平 

分 类 号：F832.2[经济管理—金融学]