“复制动态方程”能解释微观企业的成长行为吗?——基于中国制造业上市公司动态面板数据模型的实证研究  

Can “Replicator Dynamic Equation” Explain the Growth Behavior of Enterprises: Empirical Research of Chinese Manufacturing Industry Listing Companies Based on Dynamic Panel Data Model

作　　者：张永林[1] 陈春春[1,2] 王国成[3] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院,北京100875 [2]苏黎世大学经济学院 [3]中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所,北京100732

出　　处：《财贸研究》2015年第1期116-124,共9页Finance and Trade Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"面向经济复杂性的行为建模与计算实验及应用研究"(71471177);国家留学基金"企业盈利的波动性及其股票的流动性匮乏"(201306040087);瑞士SNF基金"Capital adequacy;valuation;and portfolio selection for insurance companies"(NFS/NCCR)的资助

摘　　要：基于"复制动态方程"的主要假设,以盈利能力与成长速度的关系为出发点,选择1714家制造业上市公司1990—2013年数据,建立动态面板数据模型并采用系统广义矩法估计,实证分析企业盈利能力对其成长速度的影响。结果显示:企业盈利能力与成长速度之间存在正相关关系,但前者对后者的影响较为微弱。这表明盈利能力并非是企业成长的决定性因素,即"复制动态方程"的理论与企业成长的实际并不完全相符。进一步,从"复制动态方程"的基本假设出发,对不符之处进行了合理解释。Based on the main assumptions of ＂replicator dynamic equation＂, the paper chooses the re- lationship between profitability of a firm and its growth rate to be the starting point, takes advantage of the data of 1714 manufacturing listed companies （from 1990 to 2013）, establishes a dynamic panel data model and uses the System GMM to solve it, and empirically testes the effect of profitability on growth rate. The results show that there is a positive relation between the two variables, but the impact of profitability on growth rate is somehow a little weak. This shows that probability is not the defective factor for firms＇ growth, namely the theory of ＂replicator dynamic equation＂ is not consistent with the actual situation of firms＇ growth behavior. Furthermore, the paper interpretes the discrepancies through the basic assumption of the ＂replicator dynamic equation＂.

关 键 词：复制动态方程 盈利能力 企业成长 

分 类 号：F425[经济管理—产业经济]