基于寿命数据的电力变压器经济寿命预测  

Economic Life Prediction of Power Transformers Based on the Lifetime Data

作　　者：王慧芳[1] 赵婉芳[1] 杜振东 兰洲 何奔腾[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学电气工程学院,浙江省杭州市310027 [2]浙江省电力公司经济技术研究院,浙江省杭州市310008

出　　处：《电网技术》2015年第3期810-816,共7页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51107112)~~

摘　　要：电力设备经济寿命的定量预测能为设备运维决策和电网规划提供依据。构建了以年等值成本最低为依据的变压器经济寿命预测模型。为计算模型中的关键参数,将变压器的全寿命数据进行分类和关键数据提取,采用无分布的比例故障率模型和蒙特卡洛模拟法计算得到故障率和停机持续时间的概率分布。然后分析经济要素,在计算电力变压器的年度检修成本、年度中断成本和年度运行成本的基础上,实现了电力变压器经济寿命的定量预测。最后以一台实际的220 k V现役变压器为例,按照所建立的预测模型进行了经济寿命预测的实证研究,结果表明预测模型不仅能有效利用设备寿命数据,而且预测结果合理,对变压器的运维决策,以及未来变电站的规划改造具有指导意义。Quantitative prediction of economic life of power equipment can provide guidance to operation and maintenance decision-making and network planning. In this paper, economic life prediction model of transformer based on minimum equivalent annual cost is established. In order to calculate key indicators for the model, life-cycle data of transformer are sorted and some key data are obtained. Then distribution-free proportional hazard model and Monte-Carlo simulation method are used to calculate the failure rate and proportional distribution of outage duration time. Economic life of transformer is then quantitatively predicted after analyzing economic factors and calculating annual maintenance cost, annual interruption cost and annual operation cost. Finally, case of an actual 220 kV transformer is studied to prove that proposed prediction mode! can not only effectively utilize life-cycle data of equipment, but also properly predict economic life of equipment, which means that it has significance in planning and modification of future power transformation substation.

关 键 词：电力变压器 经济寿命预测 比例故障率模型 蒙特卡洛模拟 

分 类 号：TM721[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]