“十三五”期间中国新型城镇化道路的战略重点——基于农村居民城镇化意愿的实证分析与政策建议  

STRATEGIC FOCUSES OF CHINA'S NEW URBANIZATION DURING THE 13TH FIVEYEAR PLAN PERIOD:EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS BASED ON RURAL RESIDENTS' URBANIZATION WILLINGNESS

作　　者：李琬[1] 孙斌栋[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学中国现代城市研究中心 [2]教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地-华东师范大学中国现代城市研究中心 [3]华东师范大学城市与区域科学学院党委

出　　处：《城市规划》2015年第2期23-30,共8页City Planning Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41471139);上海哲学社会科学规划课题(2014BCK003);教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目(11JJDZH004)

摘　　要：跳出不同规模城市利弊分析的传统思路,本文通过分析农村居民的城镇化意愿及其影响因素来确定"十三五"期间的我国新型城镇化道路的战略重点。结果发现,农村居民的城市迁移偏好基本呈"哑铃形",即大部分农民倾向迁移到小城市(小城镇、县或县级市),其后是大城市,居于中间的中等城市对农民城市化吸引力最低;女性、家庭人均土地少尤其是有过外出经验的农村居民更偏好高等级城市;社会资本无论是内向还是外向均有利于农民向中等城市迁移,且有可能使得农民在大城市和小城市的选择中倾向小城市迁移;经济发展、就业机会、基础设施和对外联系等因素的区域差异是影响农村居民迁移偏好的重要原因,并且偏好中等城市的农村居民相对更重视公共服务,而偏好大城市的农村居民更注重就业机会。根据这些研究结论,最后为推进"十三五"期间国家新型城镇化建设提出了战略重点和政策建议。Different from previous studies that focus on the pros and cons of various scales of cities, this paper analyzes rural residents＇ migration preference and relevant influencing factors, so as to identify strategic focuses of China＇s new urbanization during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. It discovers that, firstly, rural residents＇ city preference is featured by a ＂dumbbell-shape＂ - a majority of farmers tend to migrate to small cities, then to lager cities, and to be least attracted by medium- sized cities; secondly, among rural residents, the female, the family with less per capita land, and particularly those who have work experience in cities prefer large cities; thirdly, social capitalis more conductive to rural residents moving to medium-sized cities and making them choose small cities as their migration destination; fourthly, regional differences in economic development levels, job opportunities, infrastructure, and others are important factors in affecting rural residents＇ city preference, and rural residents who tend to move to medium-sized cities attach more importance to public services, while large cities seekers pay more attention to job opportunities. On the basis of the research results, it proposes strategic focuses and policy recommendations for promoting China＇s new urbanization during the 13th Five-Year Plan period.

关 键 词：新型城镇化 十三五 农村居民 城镇化意愿 城市迁移偏好 

分 类 号：F299.21[经济管理—国民经济]