1964—2013年天水市热量资源变化及对农业生产的影响  

Effect of Thermal Resource Variation on Agricultural Production in Tianshui During 1964-2013

作　　者：李晓鹤[1,2,3] 朱拥军[2] 袁佰顺[2] 李霖[2] 胡利平[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,兰州730020 [2]甘肃省天水市气象局,甘肃天水741018 [3]甘肃省天水市人工影响天气办公室,甘肃天水741018

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2015年第6期153-160,共8页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家科技部公益行业科研专项(GYHY201106029);甘肃省气象局气象科研项目"天水农业气象灾害风险评估技术及其预警系统"(2012-13)

摘　　要：分析天水市主要粮食作物玉米和冬小麦对气候变暖的响应特征,为提高对气候变化的应变能力、减轻气候变暖对农业生产的不利影响和种植结构调整提供参考依据。根据天水市7个国家气象观测站1964—2013年的气温资料,用气候倾向率和Mann-Kendall统计检验方法,对天水市50年来气温变化特征和热量资源进行统计分析;利用天水市1981—2013年玉米和冬小麦产量资料,结合对应时段的气象资料应用SPSS 13.0软件建立回归模拟方程,探讨作物生育期与温度的关系及变化趋势。结果表明,天水市1964—2013年的年平均气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温均呈上升趋势,负积温绝对值呈减少趋势。1994年前后气温发生了突变,进入了显著增暖时期,增暖前后年平均气温升高了0.97℃;各季节的气温变化幅度以春季最大、冬季次之。1994—2013年内相继出现了13个暖冬年份,是近50年中较暖的时期。自1981年以来,冬小麦全生育期天数平均以0.59天/年的速度线性减少,1981—2013年全生育期总天数减少了20天,其中返青期—拔节期、抽穗期—开花期减少趋势分别为0.57 d/a、0.16 d/a;玉米全生育期1981—2013年减少了5～7天,气候增暖后1994—2013年玉米生长期内平均气温增温变率为0.43℃/10 a。气候变暖已对农作物生长发育产生了较大影响。喜温作物和越冬作物种植面积扩大,种植区北界抬升;春播作物玉米播种提前,生殖生长期延长;越冬作物冬小麦推迟播种,春初提前返青,全生育期缩短。The paper aims to provide the references for improving the ability to deal with climate change,mitigate adverse effects of climate warming on agricultural production and adjusting plant structure,andanalyze the response characteristics of climate warming on main crops（corn and winter wheat） in Tianshui.According to the temperature data of seven national meteorological observatories from 1964 to 2013,with theclimate trend rate and Mann-Kendall statistical test method,statistical analyses were carried out oncharacteristics of the temperature change and thermal resources during 50 years in Tianshui.Using the yielddata of corn and winter wheat in Tianshui City during 1981-2013,combined with the corresponding periods of meteorological data,the author set up the regression model equations with SPSS 13.0 software,explored thechanging trends of crop growth period and the relationship with temperature.In 1964-2013,the annual meantemperature,the highest annual mean temperature and the lowest annual mean temperatures were on the risingtendency,but the negative accumulated temperature in absolute value had a decreasing trend in Tianshui.Thetemperature mutations happened before and after 1994,and then entered a period of significant warming,theaverage annual temperature rose 0.97℃ around warming.The seasonal variation of temperature was themaximum in spring and the next was in winter.There were 13 warm winters in 1994-2013,and that was awarmer period in nearly 50 years.Since 1981,the days of whole growth period for winter wheat were reducinglinearly at a rate of 0.59 days per year on average,the total days of whole growth period reduced by 20 daysduring 1981-2013,of which regreening-jointing stage,heading-flowering stage respectively declined 0.57 and0.16 days per year.The whole growth period of corn reduced by 5-7 days,after climate warming,thetemperatures warming rate was 0.43℃ per decade during corn growth period in 1981-2013.Climate warminghad a greater influence on crop growth.With expanding of planting area of t

关 键 词：天水市 气候变化 热量资源 农业生产 影响 

分 类 号：S162[农业科学—农业气象学]