基于层次分析法的塔里木河流域棉花生产适宜性研究  

Research on Suitability Index of Cotton Production in the Tarim River Basin by Analytic Hierarchy Process

作　　者：张艳波[1] 晁增福[1] 严志丹[1] 闫慧洁[1] 刘继亮[2] 

机构地区：[1]塔里木大学信息工程学院,新疆阿拉尔843300 [2]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所临泽内陆河流域研究站,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2015年第3期170-175,共6页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：塔里木大学哲学社会科学基金(TDSKSS1401);自然科学项目(TDZKSS201318);国家自然科学基金(31360055)

摘　　要：近50年来,新疆的植棉业取得了长足进展.棉花产量不断提高,棉花种植面积呈上升趋势.以塔里木河流域为研究对象,通过收集并处理分析数据,建立典型相关分析模型,借助SAS软件进行分析得出月平均气温、月平均日照时数和月平均风速为棉花种植适宜性评价指标.采用层次分析法确定评价适宜性指标的权重,进而建立多元线性回归模型得到适宜度.最后,通过累积曲线法对适宜度进行分级,得出塔里木河流域棉花种植适宜性评价体系,并对23个县市进行评价及区划.通过因子分析法得到了影响塔里木河流域棉花种植适宜性的主要气候因子.In the past 50 years, the cotton production in Xinjiang has made considerable progress. The cotton output and planting area have continuously increased. In this paper, the evaluating indicator of suitability index of cotton production in the Tarim River Basin is studied with the monthly average temperature, monthly mean sunshine hours and monthly average wind speed by SAS software. The weighing coefficient of evaluating indicator of suitability index is discussed by hierarchy process, the suitability index is obtained by the establishment of multiple linear regression model. Finally, the evaluating indicator of suitability index of cotton production in the Tarim River Basin is learned by the classification of suitability index which is studied by cumulative curve method, the twenty-five counties and cities are evaluated and divided by the suitability index of cotton production. The important factors of suitability index of cotton production in the Tarim River Basin are obtained by factor analysis method.

关 键 词：层次分析法 植棉业 适宜度 塔里木河流域 

分 类 号：S562[农业科学—作物学]