基于灰色马尔科夫模型的中国女子竞走成绩的预测  

Grey Markov Model Based on Chinese Female Race Results Forecast

作　　者：铁钰[1] 郑超[1] 代长义 许颖华[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学体育学院,辽宁大连116029

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2015年第3期187-194,共8页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

摘　　要：以中国女子竞走年度最好成绩作为原始数据序列建立灰色马尔科夫预测模型.研究表明:灰色马尔科夫预测模型对中国女子竞走成绩的预测具有更高的精确度与实用价值;通过对女子竞走年度最好成绩进行预测,预测结果显示中国女子竞走与世界女子竞走的年度最好成绩呈现出拉大趋势.By selecting the annual best result of Chinese Woman＇s 20km Race Walk as the original time series, establish a Gray Markov prediction model. The result shows： Grey Markov prediction model to the Chinese Woman＇s 20km Race Walk performance prediction has a higher accuracy and the practical value; Predicting the annual best result in the future of Woman＇s 20km Race Walk in the next nearly 10 years, Predicted results show that the annual best result of the Chinese woman＇s 20km Race Walk and the World woman＇s 20km Race Walk present the trend of widening gap.

关 键 词：灰色马尔科夫模型 女子竞走 年度最好成绩 

分 类 号：O211.62[理学—概率论与数理统计] G821[理学—数学]