装备保障系统设计技术风险的识别与评价  

Technical Risk Identifi cation and Evaluation for Equipment Support System

作　　者：武文博[1] 骆明珠[2] 康锐[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学可靠性与系统工程学院,北京100191 [2]工业和信息化部计算机与微电子发展研究中心(中国软件评测中心),北京100048

出　　处：《工业技术创新》2015年第1期21-27,共7页Industrial Technology Innovation

摘　　要：本文首先提出了装备保障系统设计技术风险的定义,然后从风险致因和全寿命周期两个角度对风险进行了识别,并分别构建了风险综合评价指标体系。针对装备保障系统设计技术风险的复杂性和难以量化的问题,建立了保障系统设计技术风险的模糊综合评价模型,最后通过案例对模型的有效性进行了检验。为保障系统设计风险管理提供了有效的方法和手段,从而为提高装备战备完好性和作战能力提供了有力支持。This paper proposed the definition of support system design risks, and identified the technical risks from both risk-causation and whole-life aspect, then constructed the risk assessment system. In view of the technical risk＇s complexity and quantitative, a fuzzy appraisal model for technical risk is described in detail, and the appraisal processes are introduced. Finally, a case is made to prove the validity of the model. In conclusion, it provides an effective method and means to the risk management technique of support system design. Therefore it contributes to improve the equipment operational capability.

关 键 词：武器装备 保障系统设计 技术风险 指标体系 模糊综合评价 

分 类 号：X820.4[环境科学与工程—环境工程]