基于熵权的高速公路项目融资风险模糊评价  

Fuzzy Evaluation of Highway Project Financing Risks Based on Entropy

作　　者：黄琼[1] 杨玉宝 

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学管理与经济学院,云南昆明650093 [2]云南武昆高速公路有限公司,云南昆明650109

出　　处：《昆明理工大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第1期107-111,117,共6页Journal of Kunming University of Science and Technology(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70962003);云南省教育厅科学研究基金项目(2012Y393)

摘　　要：本文选取模糊层次分析法和熵权法结合来评价高速公路项目融资风险,该评价方法既客观又合理,能够在事前对项目融资的风险高低做出综合评价以进行合理的投资决策.我们首先通过综合国内外高速公路项目融资实践中遇到的普遍风险,将风险划分为两个层次共7个一级指标和31个二级指标,并将风险等级划分为五个级别,选取模糊层次分析法对高速公路项目融资风险做出评价,中间采用熵权法来确定各级指标权重,将主观与客观相结合,增强评价的合理性.同时选择云南西部道路发展项目作为案例进行分析,更加清晰地阐述了模糊层次分析法和熵权法在高速公路项目融资风险评价中的运用.This paper combines fuzzy analytic hierarchy process（ FAHP） with entropy weight method to evaluate the highway project financing risks. The combination is objective and reasonable,which enables a comprehensive evaluation of the level of project financing risks for rational investment decisions in advance. Firstly,the risks are divided into two levels which are of 7 first-class indexes and 31 second-class indexes through the practical experience of highway project financing risks both in domestic and foreign countries,then the risk level is divided into five levels. FAHP is used to assess highway project financing risks,and entropy weight method to determine the weight of each index. This combination of subjective and objective methods enhances the reasonableness of the evaluation. Western Yunnan Roads Development Project is then selected as a case to elaborate the using of FAHP and entropy weight method in expressway project financing risk assessment.

关 键 词：项目融资 熵权 模糊层次分析法 融资风险 

分 类 号：F282[经济管理—国民经济]