窟野河径流变化检测及归因研究  

Analysis on detection and attribution of runoff change in Kuye river basin

作　　者：白乐[1,2] 李怀恩[1] 何宏谋[2] 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室培育基地,西安710048 [2]黄河水利科学研究院,郑州450003

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2015年第2期15-22,共8页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家"十二五"科技支撑计划(2012BAB02B04);中央分成水资源费项目(1261220162511)

摘　　要：窟野河径流变化是气候变化和人类活动作用的结果,也是流域水资源开发利用及治理保护的重要依据。基于窟野河流域温家川站径流量(1954—2010年)资料,采用MK-P法和Pettitt法进行突变年识别及归因分析;并借助SCRAQ法估算降水、潜在蒸发和人类活动对径流的影响。结果表明:窟野河径流量呈显著减小趋势,且在1979年和1996年发生两次显著突变。与基准期相比,人类活动强度较低期(1980—1996年)降水、潜在蒸发、人类活动对径流的影响比例分别为29.21%、-3.63%,74.42%;人类活动强度较高期(1997—2010年)所占比例分别为20.62%,-1.53%和80.91%;与人类活动强度较低期相比,人类活动强度较高期占比例分别为11.85%,-0.16%和87.99%。大规模水土保持和高强度煤矿开采对窟野河径流突变具有重要影响。This study is to provide an identifiable ground for development and utilization of water resources in the Kuye River basin under the direct impact of abnormal climate changes and human activities. According to trend analysis on the annual runoff series at the Wenjiachuan hydrologic station in the basin from 1954 through 2010, MK-P method and Pettitt test were used to detect the abrupt points in this series, and the contribution ratios of rainfall, potential evaporation, and human activities on the runoff were calculated by the method of slope change ratio of cumulative quantity （SCRCQ）. Results show that the series has significant decreasing trends and mutation features with two abrupt points that occurred in 1979 and 1996. Relative to the reference period 1954--1979, the impact proportions of annual precipitation, annual potential evaporation, and human activities on runoff were 29.2%, -3.6%, and 74.4% respectively in the period 1980--1996 of low human activity intensity, and 20.6%, -1.5%, and 80.9% in 1997--2010 of high intensity. If compared with the period of low human activity intensity, the impact proportions were 11.9%, -0.2%, and 88.0%. Large-scale water and soil conservation measures and high-intensity coal mining have produced significant effects on the mutations in the Kuye River runoff.

关 键 词：水文学及水资源 径流变化 MK-P法 SCRAQ法 窟野河流域 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]