梯级水库汛限水位动态控制  

Dynamic control of flood limited water level for cascade reservoirs

作　　者：周研来[1,2] 郭生练[1] 段唯鑫[1,3] 陈华[1] 刘攀[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉430072 [2]长江科学院水资源综合利用研究所,武汉430010 [3]长江水利委员会水文局,武汉430010

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2015年第2期23-30,共8页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51079100;51190094)

摘　　要：本文提出了一种梯级水库汛限水位动态控制方法,以清江梯级水库为研究对象,首先建立清江流域汛期的数值气象水文预报模型,滚动预报流域未来三天的洪水过程;其次建立基于"大系统聚合思想"的梯级水库长期优化调度图模型,通过二元Copula-SAR模型随机模拟梯级水库入库径流以反映其长期变化规律,并采用遗传算法制定优化调度图;最后依据长期与短期调度的耦合原则,建立基于"大系统聚合分解思想"的梯级水库汛限水位动态控制模型,并采用逐次优化法优化得到清江梯级水库汛限水位动态控制方案。研究结果表明:耦合了长期调度规则的梯级水库汛限水位动态控制方案相比未耦合长期调度规则的梯级水库汛限水位动态控制方案和原设计方案,2010年7月中下旬的场次洪水,清江梯级水库发电量分别增加0.59亿k W·h和3.14亿k W·h,增幅为6.20%和45.11%,在不降低防洪标准的前提下可显著提高洪水资源利用率。This paper presents a method for real-time dynamic control of flood limited water level for the Qing River cascade reservoirs. In this method, we developed a weather forecasting model for forecasting the flood process in future three days, then an optimal-operation-curve model using a genetic algorithm for optimization of long-term reservoir operation and a binary Copula-SAR stochastic model to simulate the long-term behaviors of runoff. Finally, a real-time optimal operation model was constructed using an aggregation-disaggregation approach to dynamic control flood limited water level for cascade reservoirs and considering the rules for coupling long-term and short-term operations, and an optimal algorithm POA was adopted to solve the model. The results show that the real-time dynamic control with long-term operation rules can generate extra power outputs of 0.059 and 0.314 billion kW.h （increases by 6.2% and 45.1%） relative to those without coupling long-term operation rules and in design operation, respectively.

关 键 词：长期调度 优化调度 动态控制 汛限水位 清江梯级 

分 类 号：TV697.1[水利工程—水利水电工程] TV73