基于时段控制因子的荆江三口分流变化趋势研究  

Study on variation trends of flow diversion from Jingjiang River to Dongting Lake

作　　者：朱玲玲 陈剑池 袁晶 董炳江 

机构地区：[1]长江水利委员会水文局,武汉430010

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2015年第2期103-111,共9页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)(2012CB417001);国家科技支撑计划课题(2013BAB12B01)

摘　　要：本文通过系统分析近60年荆江三口分流的变化特征,认为三口分流变化存在明显时段性,每个时段均由趋势调整期和平衡调整期组成,特大洪水、下荆江裁弯工程、葛洲坝和三峡水库蓄水运用等是不同时期内荆江三口分流比变化的诱发因素。总结提炼出长江干流与三口洪道水位差减小、干流径流量减少分别是80年代中期前后荆江三口分流减少的直接作用因子,并基于时段控制因子预估了荆江三口分流比的变化趋势。This paper analyzes the changes in flow diversion from the Jingjiang River to the Dongting Lake in the recent sixty years, and demonstrates the causes of these changes： extra-large floods, construction of lower Jingjiang cut-off project, and operation of the Gezhouba reservoir and Three Gorges reservoir. The changes in the diverted flows through the Jingjiang Three Outlets showed significantly periodical behaviors, and at each stage of such periods the diverted flows were dominated by several trend-adjusting periods and equilibrium-adjusting periods. A deeper exploration on the causes and their effect on the adjustment of flow diversion at the outlets reveals that the direct cause for reduction in the diverted flows was the decrease in water level difference between the Yangtze mainstream and the Three Outlets channels before the mid 80＇s, and then it was shifted to the flow reduction in the middle Yangtze. The variation trends of flow diversion from Jingjiang to Dongting were predicted by using changes in control factors at different stages.

关 键 词：河流泥沙工程学 三口分流 水位差 径流变化 趋势性调整期 

分 类 号：TV142[水利工程—水力学及河流动力学]