三支决策理论及应用  

Theory of trinary decision and its application

作　　者：殷业[1] 柯德营 刘传勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海师范大学信息与机电工程学院,上海200234

出　　处：《上海师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第1期95-104,共10页Journal of Shanghai Normal University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(60971004);上海师范大学创新性和前瞻性项目(DYL201007)

摘　　要：三支决策理论自从2009年被提出后,已成为学术界的一个热门研究方向.马云的成功是三支决策中的一个典型案例.许多创业的年轻人视马云为榜样,所以能否从马云的成功案例中找到可复制的规律是非常值得研究的问题.对马云成功案例做了详细的分析,得出马云案例实际上是将传统二支决策转化为三支决策的过程.分析了马云案例的要素,对马云案例进行了数学建模,并举一反三,用三支决策分析了"货币的起源"和"中庸之道"决策思想,从中可以看到三支决策是人类处理不确定问题普遍采用的有效方法,也说明了系统研究三支决策理论及应用的重要性.Since trinary-decision theory was proposed in 2009 it has become a hot academic research field. Ma Yun＇s success story is a typical case in trinary-decision. Many young entrepreneurs depend on the example of Ma Yun,so it is very worthy of study to find the rules that can be replicated from Ma＇ s success storiy. In this paper,Ma＇ s success is analyzed in detail. It is actually considered as the traditional binary-decision making into trinary-decision making process. This paper analyzes the elements of Ma＇s case. A mathematical model of trinary-decision making is given. The ″origin of currency″ and ″Zhongyong″（ moderation） decision thought is also analyzed by trinary-decision. You can see that trinary-decision making is an effective way for human to deal with uncertain problems,and also illustrates the importance of systematic study of trinary-decision theory and its applications.

关 键 词：三支决策 粗糙集理论 电子商务 马云 大数据 数学模型 

分 类 号：TP181[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]