输变电设施可靠性评估中设备故障率预测方法研究  

Study on the prediction method for failure rate in the reliability evaluation of power transmission and transformation facility

作　　者：李莉 熊炜[2] 陆冬梅[2] 龙燕[2] 袁旭峰[2] 邹晓松[2] 

机构地区：[1]贵州电力试验研究院,贵阳550001 [2]贵州大学,贵阳550025

出　　处：《电测与仪表》2015年第3期37-41,共5页Electrical Measurement & Instrumentation

基　　金：贵州省科技厅基金资助项目(黔科合J字[2011]2060号)

摘　　要：由于输变电设备在地域分布上的复杂性、运行状态的随机多样性,使得输变电设备故障率具有时变性、随机性等特点。同时由于反映设备故障的信息获取困难,故难以应用常规的回归分析法、分解分析法等时间序列分析法建立准确的故障率预测模型。文中以全网输变电设备故障率为研究对象,提出了一种基于自回归-移动平均混合模型(ARMA模型)的输变电设备故障率预测方法,克服了常规解析法进行输变电设施可靠性评估信息获取困难的缺点,能有效提高全网输变电设施可靠性评估的合理性和准确性。最后,对220k V输电线路故障率进行了预测,结果表明,所提预测模型具有较高的精度,能够满足实际工程的应用要求。The equipment failure rate of power transmission and transformation system is time-variable and stochastic because of the complexity of its geographical distribution and randomness and diversity during operation. Meanwhile,it is difficult to establish an accurate failure rate prediction model by using conventional regression and decomposition analysis methods because the information reflecting the failure is difficult to be obtained. Making the failure rate of the whole transmission system as a study objective,a prediction method for failure rate of power transmission and transformation facility based on the ARMA model is proposed in this paper,which can overcome the difficulties of the conventional methods,and improve the retionality and validity of the reliability of the whole transmission system. Finally,the method is used to predict the failure rate of 220 k V transmission lines,and the results show that the method has a high accuracy,and can meet the application requests of the practical projects.

关 键 词：输变电系统 可靠性评估 设备故障率预测 ARMA模型 

分 类 号：TM774[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]