基于VAR的人口流动与地区经济关系研究——以重庆市为例  

Study on the Relationship between the Population Migration and Region Economy Based on the Framework of VAR Model:A Case Study of Chongqing

作　　者：高端君 彭佳林[1] 李孜[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学社会与公共管理学院,重庆400067

出　　处：《西北人口》2015年第1期97-101,共5页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：重庆市社科基金"基于社会治理视角下的重庆市流动人口管理与服务模式研究"资助;重庆市卫生和计划生育委员会重点项目"流动人口动态监测"资助

摘　　要：基于人口流动规模持续扩大的经济现象,以重庆市为例,将人口流动、经济增长归入统一的逻辑框架,借助向量自回归模型(VAR)分析研究后认为:人口流动与经济增长之间存在较强的相关关系。Granger因果关系检验显示人口流动与经济增长在滞后期范围内构成了Granger因果关系,最后提出了VAR模型框架内提升地区经济发展的人口政策与治理路径。Based on the economic phenomenon of the continued expansion of the scale of the population mobility,taking Chongqing as an example.the logical framework will concludes the floating population and economic growth. And with the aid of VAR model analysis shows that：there exists strong correlation between population mobility and economic growth. Grander causality test shows population mobility and economic growth Grander causality in the lag period range.Finally, proposed the population policy and governance path of promoting regional economic development based on the framework of VAR model.

关 键 词：人口流动 经济发展 VAR模型 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学]