Assessing the Stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation of the Past,Present,and Future  

作　　者：刘伟 刘征宇 

机构地区：[1]Scripps Institution of Oceanography,University of California,San Diego,La Jolla,CA 92093,USA [2]Laboratory of Climate,Ocean,and Atmosphere Studies,Peking University [3]Center for Climatic Research,University of Wisconsin-Madison,Madison,WI 53706,USA

出　　处：《Journal of Meteorological Research》2014年第5期803-819,共17页气象学报（英文版）

基　　金：Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41130105);National(Key)Basic Research and Development(973)Program of China(2012CB955203)

摘　　要：This paper is a review of the recent development of researches on the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation （AMOC）. In particular, we will review recent studies that attempt to best assess the stability of the AMOC in the past, present, and future by using a stability indicator related to the freshwater transport by the AMOC. These studies further illustrate a potentially systematic bias in the state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean generM circulation models （AOCCMs）, in which the AMOCs seem to be over-stabilized relative to that in the real world. This common model bias in the AMOC stability is contributed, partly, to a common tropical bias associated with the double intertropical convergence zone （ITCZ） in most state-of-the- art AOGCMs, casting doubts on future projection of abrupt climate changes in these climate models.This paper is a review of the recent development of researches on the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation （AMOC）. In particular, we will review recent studies that attempt to best assess the stability of the AMOC in the past, present, and future by using a stability indicator related to the freshwater transport by the AMOC. These studies further illustrate a potentially systematic bias in the state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean generM circulation models （AOCCMs）, in which the AMOCs seem to be over-stabilized relative to that in the real world. This common model bias in the AMOC stability is contributed, partly, to a common tropical bias associated with the double intertropical convergence zone （ITCZ） in most state-of-the- art AOGCMs, casting doubts on future projection of abrupt climate changes in these climate models.

关 键 词：AMOC stability indicator freshwater transports ITCZ DEGLACIATION 

分 类 号：P434[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]