基于模糊综合评判的铁路应急资源需求紧急度评价研究  

Study on Urgency Evaluation of Railway Emergency Resource Demand based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

作　　者：穆然[1] 郑云水[1] 成利刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学自动化与电气工程学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《铁道运输与经济》2014年第10期70-75,共6页Railway Transport and Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61261014);兰州交通大学青年基金项目(2011014)

摘　　要：在概述模糊综合评判原理的基础上,针对铁路突发事件发生后应急资源在不同时段不同应急点效用不同的特点,构建铁路应急资源需求紧急度评价模型,分析确定应急资源需求紧急度的影响因素和评判集,采用层次分析法确定各影响因素的权重,采用模糊综合评判法对铁路不同应急点所需不同资源的紧急度进行评价,并且通过算例验证模型的有效性和实用性,结果较为贴近实际,从而为科学合理调度铁路应急资源提供决策依据。Based on summarized the principles of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, targeting with the characteristics of emergency resource having different effects in different stages and different incident spot after railway emergency arising, the urgency evaluation model of railway emergency resource demand was established, which used to firstly analyze and determine the influence factors and judging sets of the urgency of emergency resource demand, determine the weight of each influence factor by using AHP method, then evaluate the urgency of different resource needed in different emergency point on railways by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The paper also validated the availability and practicability of the model by example. The validated result was closed to the fact, thereby provides decision-making basis for scientifically and reasonably traffic controlling railway emergency resource.

关 键 词：模糊综合评判 铁路应急资源 需求紧急度 应急资源调度 

分 类 号：U298.6[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]