代建制多项目管理风险评价指标体系的构建  

Risk Assessment of Multi-Project Management under Agent Construction System Management Mode

作　　者：项剑平[1] 王玉芳[1] 张云波[1] 祁神军[1] 

机构地区：[1]华侨大学土木工程学院,福建厦门361021

出　　处：《华侨大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第5期581-586,共6页Journal of Huaqiao University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71303082);中央高校基本科研业务基金资助项目(11QZR06);福建省自然科学基金青年创新项目(2012J05095)

摘　　要：针对同一代建单位代建多个业主的多项目管理难题,通过专家访谈和文献阅读法,从组织、合同、沟通、目标控制及采购五个维度识别出32个风险因素;采用结构方程模型方法,构建代建制多项目管理风险评估体系,得到28个关键风险因素;基于结构方程模型的路径系数作为指标权重,结合模糊综合评价法对代建制多项目管理风险进行量化评估,构建代建制多项目管理风险评估模型.结果表明:该代建制多项目管理风险的"量化"评估有利于风险管理与控制.To investigate the multi-project management problem agented by the same agent-construction organization for many owners,thirty two risk factors are proposed by the expert interview method and literatures,considering the organization,contract,communication,goal control and purchase.Adopting structural equation model method and the risk assessment system of agent construction multi-project management,28 key risk factors are obtained;the path coefficients of structural equation model are used as index weight,and combining with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,the multi-agent system project management risk is assessed quantitatively.The results show that the multi-agent system project management risk assessment is conducive to control the risk.

关 键 词：代建制 多项目管理 结构方程模型 模糊综合评价 风险评估 

分 类 号：TU72[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]