制造业PMI指数追踪经济的作用分析  

Tracking the Economy with the Manufacturing PMI Index

作　　者：张栋华[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《广东广播电视大学学报》2014年第5期105-112,共8页Journal of Guangdong Radio & Television University

摘　　要：近年来,随着宏观经济的波动加剧,制造业PMI指数受到越来越多的关注。制造业PMI指数的研究主要可以从定义、测度目标以及定性和定量角度出发对该指数的质量进行评估,其中在定量角度上,可进一步从以制造业PMI指数作为宏观经济监测指标和领先指标上做深入分析。研究发现:虽然PMI指数存在一定的缺陷,但制造业PMI指数整体上仍然是一个良好的经济核心指标。In recent years, with increased macroeconomic volatility, the manufacturing PMI index is given by more and more attention. The main research of the manufacturing PMI index is centering on the definition, measurement objectives and the qualitative and quantitative assessment of the quality of the index, of which from the quantitative point of view, an in-depth analysis can be conducted by using the manufacturing PMI as the macroeconomic monitoring indicator and leading indicator. The study has found that the manufacturing PMI index remains a good core economic indicator even though it is not free from flaws.

关 键 词：制造业PMI指数 宏观经济波动 经济周期 领先指数 

分 类 号：F222.3[经济管理—国民经济]