美国死亡率、死因分析及其对中国的启示  

Mortality and cause of death analysis for United States and its enlightenment for China

作　　者：郭维明[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人口与发展研究中心,北京100081

出　　处：《中华损伤与修复杂志（电子版）》2014年第4期29-34,共6页Chinese Journal of Injury Repair and Wound Healing(Electronic Edition)

基　　金："十二五"国家科技支撑计划"人口与发展数学模型与综合决策支持系统"项目资助(2012BAI40B01)

摘　　要：目的对美国死亡率、死因分析进行总结和分析,力求发现死亡率变化规律及其影响因素之间关系,为编制中国模型生命表提供借鉴和参照。方法利用世界卫生组织《人类死亡数据库》中美国生命表及美国疾病预防与控制中心发布的年度《国家生命统计报告》,对1933年至2010年间美国平均期望寿命、婴儿死亡率、相关年龄组死亡率的变化规律进行了初步分析。结果 1933年至2010年,美国男性和女性平均预期寿命分别增长了17.2岁和18.43岁。20世纪50年代以来,美国0岁组、1岁组和1-4岁年龄组儿童死亡率持续稳步下降,20世纪80年代以来,男性与女性儿童死亡率极为接近,差异只有0.1‰左右。70多年来,美国人口死亡率在5-60岁年龄段相对稳定,但男女略有差异,男性大约55岁、女性大约60岁开始上升较快。1997年至2010年,美国婴儿10大死因中的前三位排名稳定不变。1935年至2010年,美国死亡风险降低60%,心脏病、恶性肿瘤和脑血管病位居五大死因前列。结论 70多年来,美国男性和女性平均期望寿命逐年增长。不同年龄组死亡率的性别差异逐年缩小。消除心脏病和恶性肿瘤将可以使美国平均预期寿命分别增加近4岁和3岁。但随着人口老龄化的加剧,也要重视老年痴呆、帕金森病等疾病死亡率的上升。随着人口死亡率显著下降,中国近40年来城乡死因构成比发生了明显变化。防治恶性肿瘤、慢性病、损伤和中毒应作为今后中国疾病防治的重点之一。Objective In order to find the variation trend of mortality and its relationship between change rule and influence factor for reference for establishing China Model Life Table. Methods This article analyzed life expectance,infant mortality,mortality trend of certain age group with life table of United States from＂Human Mortality Database＂by WHO and＂National Vital Statistical Report＂by CDC of United States from 1933 to 2010. Results From the year of 1933 to 2010,the average life expectance for both male and female increased 17. 2 and 18. 43. From 1950 s of last century,child mortality rate decreased with steady steps in US. Especially from 1980 s,child mortality rate between both male and female was similar.Over the past more than 70 years,mortality rate in age group of 5-60 was stable relatively with the little difference between male and female. There is no change in rank of the first three cause of death from 1997 to2010. The results show that mortality risk reduced 60% and heart disease,cancer and cerebrovascular disease occupied the forefront among the main five cause of death from 1935 to 2010. Conclusions Over the past more than 70 years,the average life expectance for both male and female increased and the sex difference of mortality between different groups decreased year by year in US. Four years and 3 years of life expectance can be increased by eliminating heart disease and cancer. But mortality could rise by senile dementia and Parkinson disease with intensify of aging of population. The composition cause of death had significant change in China within almost 40 years by the significant reduction of mortality. Prevention and treatment of cancer,chronic disease,injury and poisoning should become one of the key point in China in future.

关 键 词：死亡率 死亡原因 生命统计 美国 中国 生命表 

分 类 号：R195.3[医药卫生—卫生统计学]