基于安全裕度的输电线路覆冰预测方法研究  

Safety Margin Based Transmission Line Icing Prediction Method

作　　者：周蠡[1] 甘艳[2] 阮江军[1] 杜志叶[1] 杜卫[1] 刘超[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学电气工程学院,湖北武汉430072 [2]华中电网有限公司,湖北武汉4300771

出　　处：《陕西电力》2015年第1期1-5,14,共6页Shanxi Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目资助(50977066)

摘　　要：针对输电线路覆冰灾害事故预测方法的不足,提出基于安全裕度的策略对输电线路的覆冰情况进行预测。通过对覆冰线路模型各种运行工况下的结构失效率数值计算数据的回归分析,得到杆塔的失效评定曲线图,并对其进行预测分析。选取华中某500 kV输电线路中薄弱的杆塔作为研究对象。建立3塔2线输电线路的有限元模型,在覆冰荷载和风荷载不同组合下进行力学仿真计算,对结果数据的回归分析验证了该方法的正确性。本文方法可为准确预测线路覆冰事故、制定防覆冰改造方案提供依据。In the light of the insufficient methods for predicting the icing disasters of transmission lines,this paper proposes a safety margin based strategy to predict the operating safety of icing lines.The failure assessment curve of transmission tower is obtained through the regression analysis on the structural failure rates of icing line model under various operating conditions.Based on the safety margin in failure assessment figure（FAD）,the user can realize icing accident prediction of tower line system.A 500 kV transmission line in central China is selected as the research object to establish the finite element model of the tower line system.Mechanical simulation calculations are carried out under different combinations of icing loads and wind loads.The regression analysis of the resulting data shows that the method is of correctness.The method proposed in this paper can provide reference for accurately predicting icing accidents and formulating anti-icing plans.

关 键 词：覆冰 塔线系统 有限元模型 失效评定图 安全裕度 

分 类 号：TM722[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]