超越困境：2010年以来中美安全博弈及其影响  

Beyond the Dilemma: The Security Games Between China and US Since 2010

作　　者：林宏宇[1] 张帅[2] 

机构地区：[1]国际关系学院国际政治系 [2]国际关系学院

出　　处：《国际安全研究》2015年第2期61-80,共20页Journal of International Security Studies

摘　　要：2010年前后,随着中国经济的快速赶超,东亚安全结构发生了重大变化。深感"权力转移"之忧的美国试图以"重返亚太"及"亚太再平衡"战略来缓阻中国崛起的势头,此战略调整客观上极大地刺激了东亚地区个别国家"借美制华"的念头,它们试图以制造安全事端来"引美入亚"。美国也愿借助这些国家对华挑衅来增强其亚太战略调整的效果。对此,和平崛起的中国不得不积极应对日益严峻的周边安全形势,采取"缓美抑边"之对策,即在维护国家主权与核心利益的前提下,缓和对美关系,同时坚决回击个别国家对中国主权的严重挑衅。中美之间的安全博弈虽有所加剧,但主客观条件决定了中美之间不会爆发新冷战,中美两国终将走出大国博弈的安全困境。此轮中美安全博弈对当今国际安全格局产生了很大影响,它导致中国战略西向,积极实施"一带一路"战略,中国在亚太国际安全格局中的地位有所上升;美国可能陷于东西两线作战的尴尬境地,美国在国际安全格局中的地位和作用有所下降;大国安全博弈中心西移,国际安全格局呈现某种"西升东降"之态势。Around the year of 2010, rapid economic development brought about a major shift of power in East Asia. The United States, in an effort to hold onto its hegemonic power in the region, tried to thwart the rise of China by pivoting to East Asia, and consequently greatly stimulated some Asian countries' attempts to use the US against China by involving the US in the regional security disputes they created, which, in return, coincides with the US' interests in enhancing the effects of its strategy of reentry into Asia. Faced with such a serious regional security environment and to ensure its peaceful development, China should adopt thoughtfulmeasures to pacify the US and contain its borders, that is, to ease tensions in SinoUS relations and fight back the provocation of its neighboring countries on the basis of safeguarding its national sovereignty and the core interests. In spite of the slim chance of an impending new Cold War and a smooth transition through the so-called security dilemma between the two countries, this round of Sino-US security wrestling has exerted a great impact on the international security structure in that it resulted in China's westward strategy, US' engagements on both the west and east fronts, and the focus of international security pattern shifting back to the west.

关 键 词：中美安全博弈 安全困境 中国战略 国际安全格局 

分 类 号：D815.5[政治法律—国际关系]