金融监管改革下的特里芬难题变迁  

Research on the Changes of Triffin Dilemma under the Financial Regulation Reform

作　　者：张彬[1,2] 桑百川[1] 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济研究院 [2]国务院发展研究中心外经部

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2015年第3期23-31,共9页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"我国新一轮对外开放的战略布局;主要目标与政策选择研究"(12CJL048);教育部人文社科项目(10YJC790329);中国发展研究基金会2012年发展研究基金资助

摘　　要：2008全球金融危机后改进金融监管使美元特里芬难题以新的形式表现出来。本文在对特里芬难题相关研究文献进行综述的基础上,就2008年金融危机后美国出台严厉的金融监管法案出现的理论与现实的悖论,展开探讨。理论上,加强金融监管会对美国金融创新构成约束,减弱美元的外部需求,不利于美国资本与金融账户顺差的维持,在美国经常账户长期处于逆差的情况下,美元币值的稳定性和人们对美元的信心会进一步下降。而对相关数据的统计结果却并非如此,尤其是在经常账户逆差出现改善的背景下,金融监管改革不但没有减小美国的资本与金融账户顺差,反而增大了该顺差,这意味着世界对美元的需求没有减弱,在一定的程度上缓解了特里芬难题。文章揭示了导致这一悖论的原因,以及美国金融监管改革后为缓解特里芬难题所做的战略调整,并对中国的应对策略提出了建议。The improvement of the financial regulation makes the Triffin Dilemma appear in a new form after the global financial crisis. Based on the summary of the related research literatures about the Triffin Dilemma, the article discusses the contradiction between theories and realities after the adoption of the strict financial regulation bill of the U.S. in the crisis. In theory, strengthening financial regulation will constrain the creation of financial products in the U.S., reduce the external de- mand of U.S. dollar and do bad to the surplus of U.S. capital and ：financial account. In addition to its continuous deficit of the eurrefit account, all these will further reduce the stability of and people＇s confidence in U.S. dollar. However, after processing the related data, the result shows it is not the ease. Particularly after the improvement of its current account, the financial reg- ulation reform doesn＇t reduce the surplus of U.S. capital and financial account, implying the world demand of U.S. dollar doesn＇t decrease, which relieves the Triffin Dilemma to some extent. It analyzes the reasons of the contradiction and the adjustment of U.S. strategies for relieving the Triffin Dilemma after the publication of the financial regulation bill, and proposes corresponding measures for China.

关 键 词：特里芬难题 金融监管改革 政治经济因素 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]