土地供给经济系统运行时空变化特征及政策绩效评价研究——基于宏观调控视角  

A Study from the Macroeconomic Regulation Perspective on the Spatial-Temporal Change Character of Land Supply Economic System and the Land Policy Performance Evaluation

作　　者：黄凌翔[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津城建大学经济与管理学院,天津300384

出　　处：《当代经济管理》2015年第4期74-78,共5页Contemporary Economic Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目<土地政策宏观调控机制及工具创新研究>(70803032);教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目<土地供给调控与区域经济增长关系研究>(13YJC790051)

摘　　要：土地供给政策参与宏观调控已近十年,如何识别基于宏观调控视角下土地供给经济系统的时空变化特征,评价土地供给政策调控绩效,是未来提高政策调控精准性的重要前提。运用神经网络模型计算土地供给经济系统的特征值,并分析该系统时空变化的特点。利用空间计量分析方法,研究土地供给总量、结构、方式等对土地供给经济系统的影响以及地理上的外溢特征。结果表明,土地供给经济系统表现出强的空间自相关,聚集区域空间不平衡;目前土地供给政策调控绩效中土地供应总量影响最显著,土地供应方式影响不稳定,土地供应结构影响不显著。未来土地供给政策调控的重点应放在土地供应的差异性,特别是需要采用差别化的土地政策促进区域协调发展,要充分利用发达地区土地供给政策的溢出效应。It is nearly a decade since land supply policies became a macroeconomic regulation instrument. How to study the spatial-temporal change character of land supply economic system and evaluate land supply policy is an important prerequisite to improve the regulating accuracy in future.The neural network model is used in this article to calculate the eigenvalue of the land supply economic system and identify the spatial-temporal change Character of the system. The spatial econometrics method is used to study the effect of land supply quantity, structure and way on the system, and the land policy spatial spillover effect. The result manifested that： the system shows strong spatial autocorrelation, but concentrated areas distribute unbalanced, which makes the spatial regression analysis work better than OLS regression analysis; the land supply quantity plays the most role in land supply polices regulation evaluation, and the supply way works unstable, while the supply structure is insignificant.It is concluded that the emphasis of the land supply polices regulation is the differences of land supply, and the differentiation land polices should be used to promote regional coordinated development, which needs full use of the land policy spillover effect of the developed areas.

关 键 词：土地供给经济系统 时空变化 宏观调控 绩效评价 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] F293.2