农民收入对农业投入产出关系的门槛效应研究——以新疆地区农牧民人均纯收入为门限变量的实证分析  

Research on Threshold Effect of the Relationship between Famers' Income and Agricultural Input-output—An Empirical Analysis of Using the Farmer and Herdsmen's Net Income in Xinjiang As Threshold Variable

作　　者：陈治国[1] 李红[1] 刘向晖[2] 

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学经济与贸易学院,乌鲁木齐830052 [2]新疆农业大学管理学院,乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《西部论坛》2015年第2期10-16,共7页West Forum

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71063021)

摘　　要：基于门槛效应估计模型,采取Hansen提出的门限回归法,利用2004—2013年新疆14地州市的面板数据,以农牧民年人均纯收入作为门限变量,实证分析农民收入对农业投入产出关系的门槛效应。结果表明,农牧民人均纯收入对新疆农业投入产出弹性有显著影响,并具有显著的门槛效应:当农牧民年人均纯收入跨过8 050元门限值时,农作物播种面积、农业用电量、有效灌溉面积的产出弹性明显增加;当农牧民年人均纯收入跨过9 650元门限值时,农业机械总动力的产出弹性明显增加。可见,农牧民人均纯收入的提升有利于增加新疆农业的产出,而南疆地区农牧民人均纯收入离门限值有一定距离,抑制了其农业产出弹性的提升。因此,应努力提升新疆农牧民的收入水平,并重点扶持南疆地区。Based on the threshold effect model and by applying threshold regression method proposed by Hansen, with the panel data of Xinjiang area during 2004-2013, and using farmer and herdsmen＇ s net income as threshold variable, the paper empirically analyzes the threshold effect of the relationship between famers＇ income and agricultural input-output. The empirical result shows that famer and herdsmen＇ s per capita net income has a significant impact on the agricultural input-output, and that there is prominent threshold effect. When the famer and herdsmen＇ s per capita net income is more than the threshold value of 8050 yuan, the output elasticity brought by the sown area of the crops, the agricultural electricity consumption and the effective irrigation area will increase. When the famer and herdsmen＇ s per capita net income is more than the threshold value of 9650 yuan, the output elasticity brought by the total power of agricultural machinery will increase. The paper verifies that the per capita income of farmer and herdsmen will raise agricultural output in Xinjiang. Famer and herdsmen＇ s per capita net income in southern Xinjiang autonomous region has a certain distance from the threshold value, which restricts the further rise of agricultural output elasticity. Therefore, it＇ s important to promote farmer and herdsmen＇ s net income in southern Xinjiang and to mainly support this region.

关 键 词：人均纯收入 农业物质要素 投入产出弹性 门槛效应 农民增收 农业资源配置 现代农民 农 业投入 农业产出 

分 类 号：F323.8[经济管理—产业经济] F223