北京市花卉产业产值预测方法研究  

Prediction Methods of Flowers Output Value in Beijing

作　　者：武小萍[1] 王国峰[1] 郭静静[1] 吴娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《林业经济》2015年第2期73-77,共5页Forestry Economics

基　　金：北京市海淀区社会事业研发专项项目"海淀区花园中心的示范建设和产业辐射"(编号:K2012003S)

摘　　要：文章采用简单移动平均法、加权移动平均法、线性趋势预测法、非线性趋势预测法以及灰色预测法等5种方法，通过北京市花卉产值历史数据对2014-2020年北京市花卉产值进行预测。并通过3种评价指标对方法进行评价，可以较为全面直观地对比5种方法的预测精度。探索应用BP人工神经网络于北京市花卉产值预测，结果显示BP人工神经网络的拟合精度更好，为花卉产值预测提供了一种更好的方法，具有一定的理论和现实意义。并针对北京市花卉产业的发展提出对策建议。This paper uses five methods, which are simple moving average method, weighted moving average meth- od, linear trend forecasting method, nonlinear trend prediction method and grey prediction method, to forecast the value of Beijing flower production. The flower production value of Beijing from 2014 to 2020 is predicted through the historicai data. Through three kinds of evaluation indexes for evaluating method, the prediction accuracy of five methods can be more comprehensive and intuitive comparison. The article applied BP artificial neural network to forecast the output value of Beijing city flower. And the results show that BP artificial neural network has better fit- ting precision. Providing a better way for flower production forecast, has a certain theoretical and practical signifi- cance. FinaUy, the article put forward countermeasures and suggestions for the development of flower industry in Beijing city.

关 键 词：北京市 花卉产值 预测方法 

分 类 号：F326.13[经济管理—产业经济]