交易成本视角下国内外粮食市场整合研究  

Domestic and Foreign Food Market Integration in the Perspective of Transaction Cost

作　　者：肖小勇[1] 章胜勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《财贸研究》2014年第6期80-86,共7页Finance and Trade Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"我国鲜活农产品价格形成;波动机制与调控政策研究"(12&ZD048);国家自然科学基金项目"基于动态CGE模型情景模拟的蔬菜价格波动与价格传导机制研究"(71273104);中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金"我国蔬菜价格波动的作用机理与溢出效应研究"(2013YB16)

摘　　要：基于三机制门限向量误差修正模型,在交易成本视角下研究国内外粮食市场整合,结论为:国际粮价和国内粮价向长期均衡的调整速度呈非对称性,除大豆外,玉米、大米和小麦国际价格的调整速度快于国内价格;国内外粮价之差超过一定成本之后才会出现价格套利,此时粮食市场渐趋整合,因而可以运用阀值所刻画的交易成本来衡量国内外粮食市场的整合程度。更进一步,三机制门限向量误差修正模型估计结果表明,国内外玉米、大米、大豆和小麦四类粮价的阀值分别为14.95、-264.86、396.51和-59.77。为了提高国内外粮食市场的整合程度,政策导向应该是减少国际粮食贸易的交易成本。Based on three regimes threshold vector error correction model, this paper studies domestic and foreign food market integration in the perspective of transaction cost. Conclusions are as follows： （ 1 ） The speed of adjustment to long-term equilibrium between international and domestic food prices are asym- metry. In particular, the adjustment speed of international price of corn, rice and wheat are faster than do- mestic prices; （2） Only when the difference of domestic and foreign food prices are bigger than transaction cost, can the grain market become more integrated, so the threshold value is used to measure integration of domestic and foreign food market. （3） The results of TVECM show that the threshold value of corn, rice, soybean and wheat are 14.95, - 264.86, 396.51 and - 59.77 respectively. Accordingly, discussions are proposed to improve domestic and foreign grain market integration.

关 键 词：交易成本 三机制门限向量误差修正模型 粮食市场整合 

分 类 号：F752.6[经济管理—国际贸易]