广西褐飞虱发生气候背景分析  

Analysis on Occurrence Pattern of Brown Planthopper,Nilaparvata Lugens (Stl) in Guangxi and Its Climate Background

作　　者：唐广田[1,2] 邹丽霞[2] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省农业气象重点实验室,南京信息工程大学,南京210044 [2]桂林市气象局,桂林541001

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2015年第5期191-196,共6页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41075086);国家公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006026);江苏省农业科技自主创新项目(SCX(12)3058)资助

摘　　要：利用1991~2012年广西龙州、武鸣、合浦、玉林、柳江、来宾、贺州、永福、兴安、全州等植保站褐飞虱灯诱虫情资料,结合同期龙州、永福等10个气象站气温、降水历史资料和NCEP气象再分析数据,分析近22年广西褐飞虱发生特点及其气候背景。结果表明：在气候变暖背景下,广西褐飞虱的迁入始见期、首次迁入高峰期均呈逐年提早的趋势,分别偏早2.7 d/10年及1.7 d/10年;迁入终见期有逐年推迟的趋势,推迟时间为3.7 d/10年。广西3月份气温越高,则褐飞虱迁入的始见期越早,两者相关系数r=-0.558,达P=0.01的显著性水平。广西褐飞虱灾变性迁入的发生与降水关系密切,始见期当天或者前1 d中有降水的概率达92.5%,首次迁入峰期前1 d出现降水的概率为85.1%,7月份降水量越多、雨日越多,褐飞虱的迁入量越大。当7月份850 h Pa高空以偏南气流为主时,会引发广西褐飞虱的灾变性迁入;而以偏北气流为主时,则褐飞虱发生偏轻。Based on the lighting trap catches of brown planthopper（ BPH）,Nilaparvata Lugens（ Stl） at 10 plant protection stations of Longzhou,Wuming,Hepu,Yulin,Liujiang,Laibin,Hezhou,Yongfu,Xingan and Quangzhou in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region during the period 1991 to 2012,the observed temperature and preciptation data at 10 meteorological stations of Longzhou and Yongfu and the meteorological reanalyzed data with the grids of 2. 5° × 2. 5°from the National Center of Environmental Predicting in USA at the same period,the pattern of BPH＇s occurrence and its climate background in Guangxi were analyzed. The results showed as follows： under the background of global climate warming,both of the beginning dates of BPH＇s immigration and the dates of first immigration peak had a tendency to advance year by year,ahead of 2. 7 d /10 a and 1. 7 d /10 a respectively; and the ending dates of immigration postponed year after year,which has a retardation of 3. 7 d /10 a. In Guangxi,the higher the temperature in March,the earlier the beginning dates of BPH＇s immigration,the correlation coefficient between the temperature in March and the beginning dates of BPH＇s immigration is- 0. 558 and it reached the significant level（ P = 0. 01）. The occurrence of BPH＇s catastrophic immigrations is closely related to the precipitation in this region,the probability of rainfall occurred on the day of beginning immigration or one day before it was92. 5%,and the probability of rainfall occurred on. the day before the first immigration peak appearred was85. 1%. The more rainfall amount and rainy days in July,the more of the BPH＇s immigrating heads. BPH＇s catastrophic immigrations occurred seriously when the south airflow took the dominant place at 850 h Pa in July,at the opposite side,BPH＇s immigrations decreased remarkablely when the north airflow. prevailed at 850 h Pa.

关 键 词：广西壮族自治区 褐飞虱 灾变性迁入 气候背景 相关分析 

分 类 号：S433.3[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]