基于条件概率组合设计洪水过程线  

The Design of Flood Hydrograph Based on Conditional Probability Composition

作　　者：刘和昌[1] 梁忠民[1] 唐甜甜[1] 刘方圆[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2015年第2期123-125,共3页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目(51190095);国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(51109054)

摘　　要：近年来,多变量联合分析成为水文计算领域的一个研究热点。采用Copula函数构建洪峰流量和时段洪量之间的函数关系,由两者的条件概率密度函数求得峰量的条件期望组合,再根据此组合值用变倍比法设计洪水过程线。分析结果表明,用峰量条件期望组合值设计的洪水满足设计要求,描述的洪水比传统的同倍比法更具统计意义,可为设计洪水过程提供一种新思路。In recent years,multivariate distribution analysis in hydrological field has become a hot topic.Copula function is adopted to obtain the bivariate joint distribution of flood peaks and volume here.Conditional expectation composition derivates from conditional probability distribution and is used to design flood hydrograph with changing proportion method.The results show that the design of flood hydrograph based on conditional expectation compositions of flood peak and volume meets the design requirements.Compared with the same multiple method,the design of flood hydrograph based on conditional probability composition is better at describing the statistical relationship between flood peak and flood volume,is a new way to design flood hydrograph.

关 键 词：COPULA函数 条件期望组合 条件概率密度函数 变倍比法 

分 类 号：TV122.5[水利工程—水文学及水资源]