气候变化对东海北部外海越冬场渔业群落格局的影响  

Effect of climate change on the fisheries community pattern in the overwintering ground of open waters of northern East China Sea

作　　者：刘尊雷[1,2] 袁兴伟[1,2] 杨林林[1,2] 严利平[1,2] 田永军 程家骅[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国水产科学研究院东海水产研究所,上海200090 [2]农业部东海与远洋渔业资源开发利用重点实验室,上海200090 [3]日本水产综合研究中心日本海区水产研究所,日本新泻951-8121

出　　处：《应用生态学报》2015年第3期901-911,共11页Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology

基　　金：国家公益性行业(农业)科研专项(201303047);农业部近海渔业资源调查项目;农业部中日暂定水域渔业资源调查项目(1999-2011)资助

摘　　要：为探讨东海北部外海越冬场渔业多样性和群落格局对气候变化的响应,采用中国14家渔业公司底拖网渔业生产和科学调查获得的26种渔业数据,结合东海月平均海表温度,应用经验正交函数分解(EOF)和主成分方法(PCA)分析了海洋表面温度和渔业群落的年际变化特征,并通过线性回归和广义相加模型(GAM)解析群落结构变化和海表温度的关系.结果表明:20世纪70年代到2011年海表温度在1982/1983年出现冷水期(20世纪70年代—1982年)向暖水期(1983—2011年)的跃变.冷水期内为增温趋势,暖水期内1998年之前为增温,1998年之后为降温趋势.群落结构变化特征显示:多样性波动在较大程度上受到马面鲀的影响,20世纪80年代末和90年代初马面鲀成为绝对优势鱼种,多样性处于较低水平.不含马面鲀时,多样性指数在增温期(1972—1998)随时间显著增加,在降温期(1999—2011)则同步下降,表明海表温度会影响渔业群落的多样性水平.主成分分析第一因子(PC1)和第二因子(PC2)的方差解释率为32.4%,PC1表现为长周期的年代际变化模式,可能与气候变化相关;PC2则为短周期的年际变化模式,与厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜现象发生的时间相对应.线性拟合和GAM分析结果显示,PC1与冬季海表温度EOF主模态(win EOF1)的线性关系达到极显著水平,win EOF1和sum EOF2(夏季海表温度EOF第二模态)联合效应对PC1的方差解释率达到88.9%,win EOF1对PC2也有显著的非线性影响,表明群落格局的年代际和年际变化特征受到气候和海洋水文结构的影响.Data sets of 26 fisheries target species from the fishery-depen-dent and fishery-independent surveys in the overwintering ground of open waters of northern East China Sea（ OW-NECS）,combined sea surface temperature（ SST）,were used to examine the links between diversity index,pattern of common variability and climate changes based on the principal component analysis（ PCA） and generalized additive model（ GAM）. The results showed that the shift from a cold regime to a warm regime was detected in SST during the 1970s-2011 with step changes around 1982 /1983. SST increased during the cold regime and the warm regime before 1998（ warming trend period,1972-1998）,and decreased during the warm regime after 1998（ cooling trend period,1999-2011）. Shannon diversity index was largely dependent on the filefish,which contributed up to 50%of the total production as a single species,with low diversity in the waters of the OW-NECS,during the late 1980 s and early 1990 s. Excluding the filefish,the diversity index linearly increased and decreased during 1972- 1998 and 1999- 2011,respectively. The variation pattern generally corresponds with the trend in water temperature,strongly suggesting the effect of the SST on the diversity. The first two components（ PC1 and PC2） of PCA for target species,which accounted for32.43% of the total variance,showed evident decadal variation patterns with a step change during1992- 1999 and inter-annual variability with short-period fluctuation,respectively. It seems that PC1 was associated with large scale climatic change,while PC2 was related to inter-annual oceanographic variability such as ENSO events. Linear fitting results showed win EOF1 had significant effect on PC1,and GAM analysis for PC1 showed that winter EOF1（ win EOF1） and summer EOF2（ sum EOF2） can explain 88.9% of the total variance. Nonlinear effect was also found between PC2 and win EOF1,indicating that the fish community structure,which had predominantly decadal / inter-annual variation patterns,was

关 键 词：越冬场 气候变化 群落结构 多样性 

分 类 号：S932.4[农业科学—渔业资源]