经济社会发展对黄河中游输沙量影响分析  

Analysis of the Impact of Economic and Social Development to the Sediment Load of the Middle Yellow River

作　　者：李敏[1] 王富贵[1] 

机构地区：[1]黄河上中游管理局,陕西西安710021

出　　处：《人民黄河》2015年第3期12-16,20,共6页Yellow River

基　　金：黄河水利委员会治黄专项(黄水保[2007]19-01)

摘　　要：以1954—2006年黄河中游龙门、华县、河津、氵状头四站年输沙量为因变量,以降雨(包括年降雨、暴雨、暴雨笼罩面积等)和全国GDP等24个因子为自变量,采用逐步回归分析方法,筛选出了由全国年GDP、河吴区间7—8月降雨量和河龙区间年降雨量组成的非线性回归方程。结果表明,GDP的增加、经济社会的发展对黄河年输沙量的减少,特别是对20世纪80年代以来黄河年输沙量的减少产生了主要影响。Based on the Yellow River four station annual sediment yield in 1954- 2006 as dependent variable,with 24 factors of rainfall（ including annual rainfall,heavy rain,storm enveloped the area,etc.） and the national GDP as independent variables,using regression analysis,filtering out three independent variables（ national GDP,the July- August rainfall of Hekouzhen to Wubao reach and the annual rainfall of Hekouzhen to Longmen reach） and construction the non- linear regression equation. The results show that the increasing of GDP and economic and social development are major impact of reducing annual sediment load of the Yellow River,especially they are major impact of reducing annual sediment load of the Yellow River since the 1980 s.

关 键 词：输沙量 GDP 黄河 

分 类 号：TV141[水利工程—水力学及河流动力学] TV882.1