我国房地产价格、经济增长与信贷扩张研究——基于房地产双重资产属性的分析  

A Study of Real Estate Prices,Economic Growth and Credit Expansion from the Physical and Virtual Attribute Perspective

作　　者：王庆芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《现代财经（天津财经大学学报）》2015年第1期32-44,共13页Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：天津市哲学社会科学规划项目(TJYY13-046)

摘　　要：房地产兼具实物资产和虚拟资产双重属性,从而与经济增长和信贷市场扩张存在密切的联系。本文基于房地产双重资产属性的视角,对房地产价格、经济增长和信贷扩张的相互作用机制进行梳理,并构建面板误差修正模型,利用我国285个地级及以上城市面板数据,对三者之间的长期和短期的互动机制进行检验。结果表明,东中部地区房地产价格、经济增长与银行信贷扩张之间的长短期因果关系成立,房地产的"货币创造"功能和"金融加速器"效应已经显现,需要密切关注房地产价格变动引起的银行信用风险和经济增长风险;而西部地区房地产价格对银行信贷扩张的长短期作用机制尚未形成,房地产市场运行相对健康平稳。Real estate has both physical and virtual attribute,and thus has a general contact with economic growth and credit expansion.Based on the dual asset attribute perspective,we comb the interaction mechanism of the real estate price,economic growth and credit expansion and build an econometric model.Using the panel data from 285prefecture-level and above cities,we conduct the test on the interactive mechanism among the three.The result shows that the eastern and central regions＇ short and long-term interaction mechanism has formed,and the real estate market＇s ＂money creation＂ and ＂financial accelerator＂ effect has appeared,thus the real estate price change will bring huge bank credit risk and economic growth risk.on the other hand,western regions＇ short and long-term interaction mechanism has not appeared,and the real estate market is healthy and steady comparatively.

关 键 词：虚拟资产 房地产价格 经济增长 银行信贷扩张 

分 类 号：F037[经济管理—政治经济学]