分时与阶梯混合定价下的居民电力需求——基于DCC模型的分析  

Residential Electricity Demand under Time-of-Use Pricing and Increasing Block Pricing:An Analysis Based on DCC Model

作　　者：张昕竹[1,2] 刘自敏[3,4] 

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学规制与竞争研究中心 [2]中国社会科学院规制与竞争研究中心,100732 [3]西南大学经济管理学院 [4]西南大学农业教育发展研究中心,400716

出　　处：《经济研究》2015年第3期146-158,共13页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：自然科学基金项目(71173236);江西财经大学"创新团队项目";西南大学中央高校基本科研项目(SWU1409404)的资助

摘　　要：本文使用居民用电和家电持有等微观家庭数据,针对非线性定价中存在尖点识别的问题,利用双误差离散/连续选择模型,对分时与阶梯混合定价下的居民电力需求进行实证研究。基于分时定价与阶梯定价共存的现实场景,本文首先将混合定价曲线转换为复合阶梯定价曲线;然后基于用户在尖点处的聚集特征,验证使用离散/连续选择模型的合理性;最后对双误差离散/连续选择模型进行估计。本文的基本结论是,引入阶梯定价确实增加了用户的价格弹性,并且中、低收入人群的价格弹性更大;中、高收入人群的收入弹性更高,异质性误差更大。本文的研究为系统评估阶梯定价的政策效果奠定了基础。Using residential electricity consumption and household survey data we analyze residential electricity demand under time-of-use pricing cum increasing block pricing （IBP） based on the two-error discrete/continuous choice model. We first convert the mixed pricing structure into a new IBP system, then justify the specification of an DCC model by showing the aggregating behavior around kink points, and finally, estimate the two-error DCC model. Our conclusion is that IBP increases price elasticity significantly with middle-low income households having higher price elasticity and middle-high income households have higher income elasticity and bigger heterogeneity error. Our results contribute to a systematic assessment of IBP implementation in electricity and other sectors as well.

关 键 词：居民电力需求 递增阶梯定价 峰谷定价 离散/连续选择模型 双误差 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济] F224