一种度量国家经济安全风险的方法  

A Method for Measuring National Economic Security Risk

作　　者：姜茸[1,2] 钱泓澎 

机构地区：[1]云南大学理论经济学博士后流动站,云南昆明650091 [2]云南财经大学信息学院,云南昆明650221 [3]云南财经大学财政与经济学院,云南昆明650221

出　　处：《生态经济》2015年第4期14-19,共6页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61263022;61303234);中国博士后科学基金(2012M521722);国家社会科学基金项目(12XTQ012);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(11YJCZH073)

摘　　要：研究国家经济安全风险是国家战略需要,度量风险可为风险决策和防范提供可靠数据,但现有研究,还缺乏一套行之有效或付诸实践的国家经济安全风险度量方法。鉴于此,在前人研究的基础上,建立了国家经济安全风险度量指标体系,并用故障树和信息熵方法度量国家经济安全风险。利用故障树方法,合理地分解了国家经济安全所涉及的领域,利用信息熵方法,解决了风险度量中各个部分权重分配问题。并通过1985-2011年国家外债统计年鉴数据实证分析了该方法的合理性和有效性。There is need to study national economic safety risk for national strategy. Risk measurement can provide reliable data for risk decision-making and prevention. However, there is still lack of methodology which can effectively measure national economic security risk in current researches. In view of this, on the basis of existing studies, this paper proposes a risk measurement index system of national economic security and makes use of fault tree and information entropy to measure national economic safety risk. Fault tree is used to reasonably decompose the parts which national economic security risk involves. Information entropy is used to solve the allocation of weight among the risk factors. The paper also verifies the rationality and availability through case analysis based on statistical yearbook of China external debts（1985-2011）.

关 键 词：经济安全 风险度量 信息熵 故障树 

分 类 号：F12[经济管理—世界经济] F062.5