试析欧盟新贸易政策对孟加拉国的影响  

The European Union's New Trade Policy:Implications for Bangladesh

作　　者：Mohammad Masudur Rahman 沈铭辉[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江农林大学经济管理学院 [2]中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院

出　　处：《南亚研究》2015年第1期136-153,159,共18页South Asian Studies

基　　金：云南财经大学“中国与东印度洋地区合作发展协同创新中心”资助

摘　　要：2012年10月,欧盟公布了修订版的普遍优惠制(GSP),该优惠安排于2014年1月1日起生效。与此同时,欧盟也在考虑或已经着手与许多发展中国家签订自由贸易协定(FTAs),而且正在与美国展开自由贸易谈判,这些贸易安排难免会使当前最不发达国家(LDCs)所享受的贸易优惠受到侵蚀。在此背景下,本文考察了欧盟市场的特惠侵蚀引发的经济影响,以及这种影响会给最不发达国家带来的影响,尤其是对孟加拉国造成的经济影响。In October of 2012,the EU announced changes to its Generalized Scheme of Preferences(GSP) effective January 1,2014.The EU has also already completed or is considering Free Trade Agreements(FTAs) with many developing countries,and is negotiating a FTA with the United States.These trade configurations will inevitably cause the preferential trade benefits enjoyed by many least developed countries(LDCs) to erode.This article considers the economic impacts caused by the erosion of these preferential trade benefits vis-a-vis the EU market,and the effects that this will have on LDCs,looking in particular at the case of Bangladesh.The article finds that if the EU cancels all tariffs on goods from Pakistan,India and Vietnam,the real GDP of Bangladesh will shrink by 0.27%,as it will lose the equivalent of benefits in the amount of 54 million US dollars.Bangladeshi exports to the EU will fall by 0.18%,and as a result,Bangladesh's exports of textiles and clothing will fall by 1%.A product level analysis of Bangladesh's trade finds that a wide range of textiles and clothing will face extreme difficulty entering the EU market.

关 键 词：普惠制修订版 自由贸易协定 最不发达国家 关税 壁垒 

分 类 号：F755[经济管理—国际贸易] F135.4[经济管理—产业经济]