突发事件下群体抢购行为的舆论传播机理研究  

On opinion propagation mechanism of collective panic buying under emergences

作　　者：赵奕奕[1] 彭怡[2] 肖磊[2] 李玲[3] 

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学工商管理学院,成都611130 [2]电子科技大学经济与管理学院,成都611731 [3]北京化工大学经济管理学院,北京100029

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2015年第3期616-622,共7页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金杰出青年基金(71325001);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71173028)

摘　　要：本文从舆论传播的角度,采用有界信任规则,通过引入突发事件的不确定性环境噪音因子,构建用于分析群体抢购行为的噪音异质有界信任模型.然后,通过计算机仿真,分析了信任水平不同的子群体比例变化和突发事件所引发的不确定性大小对群体观点演化的影响.研究结果将为突发事件下群体抢购行为舆论引导机制的建立和有效实施提供理论依据.From the perspective of opinion dynamics, a bounded confidence rule is adopted and a collective panic buying heterogeneous bounded confidence model is built to imitate the evolution of the collective opinions of agents in the panic buying under emergencies which are modeled by random environmental factors. Some computer simulations are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of opinion subgroups with distinct confidence levels and emergency uncertainty on the collective opinions. The results will provide theoretical evidence to build and implement effectively a guidance mechanism of public opinion within panic buying under emergencies.

关 键 词：突发事件 群体抢购行为 有界信任 

分 类 号：C939[经济管理—管理学]