社会保障预期、出生率与人口质量  

Social Security Expectation,Birth Rate and Population Quality

作　　者：李静[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽大学经济学院,安徽合肥230601

出　　处：《中国软科学》2015年第2期85-95,共11页China Soft Science

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金"教育部新人奖"资助项目(T201210501);国家社科基金项目(12BJY105)

摘　　要：在中国信奉"多子多福"的传统文化背景下,生育政策的适度放松和社会保障制度的进一步完善,必然引致个人跨期选择行为的改变。文章将社会保障对个人所产生的心理预期纳入到Diamond模型中来考察家庭代际之间的优化选择行为。理论分析认为,家庭将在收入约束和生育政策下选择孩子数量的上限和孩子的教育投入水平。而社会保障对家庭优化选择行为的作用主要表现在社会保障会使个人对未来保障产生预期,从而影响个人当期的生育动机和孩子的教育投入水平。一方面,社会保障预期对出生率具有抑制作用,但由于受到政策性因素约束,这种抑制作用较小;另一方面,社会保障预期会使家庭增加对孩子的教育投入,提高人力资本水平。随后,我们用1998—2011年省际面板数据进行计量检验,实证结果印证了理论部分的结论。Under the background of traditional culture in China, the relaxation of birth control policy and further improvement of the social security system would inevitably lead individuals to enhance their fertility desire. This article takes the social security expectation into Diamond model to examine the behavior of optimization selection for individuals. Theoretical results show that family will choose number of children and quality under the income and policy constraints. Social security will make personal more secure future, which affects the family current fertility decisions and education investment level of children. On the one hand, social security expectation has inhibitory effect on fertility, but due to the policy factor constraint, this inhibitory effect is small. On the other hand, social security expectation contributes to increase family education investment for children and then improves population quality. Finally,we use the provincial panel data from 1998 to 2011 to test the theoretical model ,and empirical results confirm the theoretical part of the conclusion.

关 键 词：社会保障 预期 出生率 人力资本 

分 类 号：F812.2[经济管理—财政学]