中药材川芎的价格波动分析  

Analysis of price fluctuation of traditional Chinese medicine chuanxiong

作　　者：李化[1] 刘国勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]成都中医药大学,成都611137

出　　处：《上海医药》2015年第5期66-68,80,共4页Shanghai Medical & Pharmaceutical Journal

基　　金：四川省教育厅青年基金"基于正位熵和ARMA模型的川产道地药材正位优势及趋势预测"(项目编号:030011079);成都中医药大学科技发展基金"川芎的价格波动研究"(项目编号:RWYB201120)

摘　　要：以川产道地药材川芎为代表,探讨自1985年政府放开大宗药材价格管制后,部分药材出现价格大幅波动的原因。本文用图表反映1985-2012年的川芎价格波动情况,构建价格GARCH模型,表明该药材的波动是一种无序波动。分析影响其价格的供需因素,明确川芎价格的巨幅波动主要来自游资炒作,并提出促进药材种植、保护药农利益的政策措施。Taking Chuanxiong as an example, to investigate the reason of the price fluctuation of traditional Chinese medical materials after the price control has been liberalized by our national government since 1985. The price fluctuation of Chuanxiong from 1985 to 2012 was reflected by figures and tables, and a GARCH model was constructed, which showed that the fluctuation was unordered. The hot money speculation was the main factor affecting the price of Chuanxiong. Policy measures promoting the cultivation of medicinal herbs and protecting farmer interest were also suggested.

关 键 词：中药材 川芎 价格波动 游资炒作 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]