综合指标叠套方法在海上雷暴预报中的应用  

Application of the indices overlapping sets method in thunderstorm forecasting over the sea

作　　者：安洁[1] 齐琳琳[1] 王东明[2] 

机构地区：[1]空军装备研究院航空气象防化研究所,北京100085 [2]山东省海洋环境监测技术重点实验室,山东省科学院海洋仪器仪表研究所,山东青岛266001

出　　处：《海洋预报》2015年第1期58-62,共5页Marine Forecasts

基　　金：国家"863"计划(2012AA091801);国家自然科学基金青年基金(41005030)

摘　　要：在前人研究陆上雷暴的经验基础上,采用综合指标叠套的方法,探讨不同海域雷暴的影响因子及其预报。选取的预报参数主要包括温度露点差、相对湿度、层结稳定度、对流有效位能、抬升指数、BOYD指数、全总指数、K指数、SWEAT指数、SWISS00、水汽通量散度等15个指标,并分区域确定各自的阈值。对2013年6月东海和南海区域雷暴进行试预报,准确率可达到70%以上,且有效减少漏报率。可见,选取的预报因子及其阈值是有效的,综合指标叠套方法用于海上雷暴的预报是可行的。Based on the previous study of thunderstorm on land, the thunderstorms over the East China Sea and South China Sea were studied by using the overlapping sets method of indices. The 15 indices, including depression of the dew point, relative humidity, stratification stability, convective available potential energy, lifted index, BOYD index, K index, SWEAT index, SWISS00, water vapour flux divergency, were chosen, and the thresholds were confirmed at different regions. The thunderstorms on June, 2013 were predicted, and the accurate rate was increased more than 70%. The selected forecast factors and the thresholds were effective, and the overlapping sets method of indices was feasible in thunderstorm forecasting over the sea.

关 键 词：海上雷暴 综合指标叠套方法 预报 

分 类 号：P732[天文地球—海洋科学]