突发性天然气供应中断的应急决策  

An emergency decision-making model for sudden natural gas supply disruptions

作　　者：郭杰[1,2] 董秀成[1,2] 皮光林[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)中国油气产业发展研究中心 [2]中国石油大学(北京)工商管理学院

出　　处：《天然气工业》2015年第3期129-134,共6页Natural Gas Industry

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"我国天然气安全预警与应急系统研究"(编号:71273277);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大攻关项目"扩大我国油气战略储备研究"(编号:11JZD048)

摘　　要：近年来我国突发性天然气供应中断事件的发生率呈现增长趋势,对我国经济、社会稳定和人们的正常生活带来了严重影响。突发性事件发展过程是一个处于快速变化中的动态过程,信息具有不确定性和模糊性的特征,难以运用单一的方法和模型进行分析和决策。因此,结合Markov预测法、三角模糊数和改进型TOPSIS法,构建了应对突发性天然气供应中断的动态多目标应急决策模型(Markov-TOPSIS模型)。即采用Markov动态预测来反映天然气中断应急决策的动态特性,运用模糊理论以实现专家决策的量化分析,结合灰色关联和TOPSIS方法对应急决策中模糊的、不确定信息进行有效处理,并实现多目标综合评价。最后,以某区域天然气供应中断为例,对该模型进行了验证。结果表明:该模型能够有效处理天然气中断应急决策过程中面临的动态变化、信息模糊和多目标决策问题,可根据突发事件的不同发展阶段选择最优决策方案。Natural gas supply disruption events have showed a growth trend in China and have a strong impact on domestic economic development, social stability and people＇s life. An emergency incident of natural gas supply disruption is a dynamic process during which the information is uncertain and ambiguous, so it is difficult to analyze and make decision correctly and rapidly with a single method or model. Therefore, in this paper, a dynamic multi-target decision-making method is proposed for emergency management based on the Markov prediction theory, integrated fuzzy theory and TOPSIS multi-criteria decision-making theory. In this method, Markov prediction is used to reflect the dynamic nature of emergency decision making; the fuzzy theory is taken to realize the quanti- fication analysis of expert decision; grey incidence theory and TOPSIS method are used to filter the uncertain and ambiguous infor- mation and realize the multi-target evaluation. Finally, a case of emergency decision making of a natural gas supply disruption is in- troduced to demonstrate the reasonability and efficiency of the proposed method. The results show that this decision-making model is an effective solution for coping with the problems of dynamic, fuzzy information and multiple objectives in the process of decision making and the optimal decision scheme at different phases of an emergency event can be drawn by this model.

关 键 词：突发性 天然气供应中断 动态多目标 应急决策 Markov预测 改进型 TOPSIS 模糊理论 灰色关联 

分 类 号：TU996.8[建筑科学—供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程]