一种预测航天火工装置可靠性的小样本方法  

A Small Sample Method for Predicting Reliability of Space Pyrotechnic Devices

作　　者：荣吉利[1] 宋乾强[1] 张涛 

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学宇航学院,北京100081 [2]北京宇航系统工程研究所,北京100076

出　　处：《宇航学报》2015年第3期360-364,共5页Journal of Astronautics

基　　金：民用航天科研预先研究项目(C4220062206)

摘　　要：给出了一种预测航天火工装置功能可靠性的新方法。当产品特性值服从正态分布,且已知产品上(下)规范限时,基于应力—强度模型,结合可靠性、统计学等相关知识,给出了航天火工装置可靠性的小样本预测方法。该方法可用20发以内的试验样本量来预测火工装置0.999999的高可靠性指标。此方法虽以火工装置为研究背景,但其基本原理可应用到其他机械类产品的可靠性预测之中,为可靠性的预测提供一种新的途径。A new method for predicting the function reliability of the space pyrotechnic devices is presented in this paper. When the characteristic value of a product obeys normal distribution and known the productup（ lower） specification limit,based on the stress-strength model,combined with statistics,reliability and other relevant knowledge,a small sample method for predicting high reliability index is given. By this methodthe test sample size within 20 units can be used to predict thehigh reliability index of pyrotechnics devices up to 0. 999999. Although this method takes pyrotechnics devices as the research background,its basic principle can be applied to the reliability prediction of other mechanical products,and can provide a new way for reliability prediction.

关 键 词：小样本 可靠性预测 火工装置 

分 类 号：V42-65[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计]