欠发达省域经济差异的时空演变分析  

Spatial-Temporal Analysis of Intra-Provincial Economic Inequality in Less Developed Provinces

作　　者：戴其文[1] 魏也华[2] 宁越敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学中国现代城市研究中心,中国上海200062 [2]犹他大学地理系及公共与国际事务研究院,美国盐湖城841129155

出　　处：《经济地理》2015年第2期14-21,29,共9页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41329001)

摘　　要：基于1989—2012年广西89个县域经济数据,利用分解的Theil指数和马尔可夫链方法,探索欠发达省域差异的时空演变。结果表明:广西区域差异对地理尺度很敏感,县域间的差异最大,其次为地市间,区域间的发展最为平衡。三大区域内部差距的增大是促成广西整体差异拉大的主导力量。广西区域经济发展存在俱乐部趋同现象,2000—2012年间的更为显著,欠发达地区极有可能陷入"贫困陷阱"。区域间的两极分化趋势增强,趋同俱乐部总体上呈环状分布特征。高水平趋同俱乐部的分布逐渐由市辖区扩散到邻近的县域。低水平趋同俱乐部主要分布在桂西资源富集区。中高水平趋同俱乐部环绕高水平趋同俱乐部外围,而中低水平趋同俱乐部集中分布在中高水平趋同俱乐部外围。广西县域单元平稳者居多,向上转移有所增加。This paper investigates regional inequality in Guangxi, one of the poorest provinces in China, with the multistage nested Theil decomposition method and the Markov chain analysis. It follows the multi-scale framework based on a dataset of 89 counties in Guangxi province from 1989 to 2012.The conclusions are drawn as follows： Regional inequality in Guangxi is sensitive to geographical scale, and inter-county inequality is the widest. The gap of inter-municipality is also wide, but there is a relatively balanced economic development among the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone, the Xijiang River Economic Belt and the resource- rich area of Western Guangxi. We also find that increasing regional inequality is mainly a result of rising interregional inequality. The uneven development of the Xijiang River Economic Belt has accounted for 55.62%of the overall inter-county inequality. We reveal a trend of increasing rural-urban disparity and find internal inequality between rural counties and urban districts is the dominant driving force. The Markov chain analysis reveals that there are four convergence clubs of regional economic development during 1989~2012, namely, the rich club,the developed club, the less developed club and the poor club. The results show that less developed regions are likely to fall into the＂poverty trap＂. Compared with the period from 1989 to 1999, club convergence is more obvious during2000~2012. The four convergence clubs distribute in a ring-shape pattern. The rich club locates at the core area, including mainly municipal districts and gradually spreading to neighboring counties, while the poor club mainly distributes in the resource- rich area of Western Guangxi. The less developed club is concentrated around the developed club, which aggregates around the rich club. A majority of the counties remain a steady status, with increasing number of counties moving up.

关 键 词：区域差异 时空演变 分解Theil指数 马尔可夫链 广西 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]