东部较发达省市人口下降区人口发展趋势——基于生育政策调整的县域个案诠释  

Research on Population Development of Depopulation County in Eastern Economic Developed Regions: Based on Country Case Analysis under the Changing of Population Policy

作　　者：彭伟斌[1,2] 陈晓慧[1] 

机构地区：[1]杭州师范大学经济与管理学院,中国浙江杭州311121 [2]上海社会科学院经济所,中国上海200020

出　　处：《经济地理》2015年第2期37-45,共9页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家社会科学规划基金项目(14BRK019);教育部人文社会科学青年项目(11YJC840040);浙江省社会科学规划项目(14NDJC034YB);浙江省高校重大人文社会科学攻关计划项目(2013GH014);浙江省科技厅软科学研究计划重点项目(2014C25030)

摘　　要：通过比照2000年第五次全国人口普查和2010年第六次全国人口普查分县数据,发现人口净输入的东部9个较发达省市也出现了219个人口下降区,约占全国人口下降区总数的21.43%。这些人口下降区在形成机制、人口年龄构成、经济发展、空间分布及农村地区社会发展等方面具有一定的共性特征。借助人口发展预测模型对县域个案的分析发现,执行单独两孩生育政策仅能产生较小的短期效应,长期来看无法阻止人口下降区人口总量持续下降和人口老龄化加速的趋势。国家应高度重视正在扩大的人口下降区及其引发的社会经济冲击,进一步调整和完善生育政策,提升人口下降区中心城市的人口集聚能力,加速构建县域医护快速响应系统,特别是要重点解决好人口下降区留守儿童的教育问题。Contrast to the fifth national census, the sixth national census results show that 9 provinces where have more developed economy in the Eastern Regions of China, where floating population have been keeping increase, have 219 depopulation counties（or county- level city）,accounting for 21.43 percent of all the counties with negative population growth, which present same characters on engendered mechanism, population age structure, economic development level,special distribution and social development in rural regions. Based on the case research of Chun’an in Zhejiang province,this article discussed the relation of two- child policy only if one of the couple is one- child and population sustainable development of depopulation county. It turned out to be that the new population policy has active action in short time but cannot stop the dropping trend of population scale and the climbing aging direction of depopulation county. In order to promote social and economic sustainable development in these similar regions, it is certain that carry out more perfect population policy, effectively upgrade the ability of concentrating population on central city, build prompt medical care system on demand, emphasize on resolving the education problem of left-behind child.

关 键 词：东部较发达省市 人口下降区 人口发展 单独两孩生育政策 

分 类 号：C912[经济管理] F127[社会学]