不规则风速概率分布的混合半云建模方法  

Mixed Half-cloud Modeling Method for Irregular Probability Distribution of Wind Speed

作　　者：陈绍南[1] 陈碧云[1] 韦化[1] 任龙[1] 韦杏秋[1] 

机构地区：[1]广西电力系统最优化与节能技术重点实验室(广西大学),广西壮族自治区南宁市530004

出　　处：《中国电机工程学报》2015年第6期1314-1321,共8页Proceedings of the CSEE

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(973项目)(2013CB228205);国家自然科学基金项目(51167001)~~

摘　　要：针对目前风电场风速概率分布模型拟合精度低、通用性差的问题,根据不确定性数学理论,提出一种基于混合半云模型的风速建模方法。该模型通过逆向云发生器求取区域风速样本的期望、熵、超熵数字特征,建立相应区域的半云模型,应用正向云发生器对不规则的风速概率分布进行分区拟合。单峰、不规则、多峰特性风速概率分布实例计算结果表明:所提风速混合半云模型简单高效、通用性强,适用于任意风速概率分布,对具有单峰、不规则、双峰或多峰特性的风速概率分布均能获得较高的拟合精度。Aiming at the low fitting precision and the poor universality of present wind speed probability distribution model, a modeling method for wind speed based on the mixed half-cloud model was presented according to the theory of uncertainty mathematics. The numerical characteristics of area wind speed samples, expectations, entropy and hyper entropy were obtained to construct the mixed half-cloud model by backward cloud generator, and then the cloud model of corresponding regions, and the positive cloud generator were applied to simulate the irregular probability distribution of wind speed of each region. Finally, different wind speed cases, with unimodal, irregular, bimodal or multimodal probability distribution, were compared to verify that the proposed model was simple, high-efficient and strongly universal, which can be applied to any type of wind speed probability distribution and has higher fitting accuracy.

关 键 词：不确定性数学 混合半云模型 风速模型 逆向云发生器 正向云发生器 

分 类 号：TM71[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]