我国海上运输关键节点安全评价研究  

Safety Evaluation of China's Maritime Transport Key Nodes

作　　者：吕靖[1] 王爽[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输管理学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2015年第1期30-36,共7页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71473023);'中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助'项目(3132014311-1)

摘　　要：海上运输关键节点安全评价研究是保障我国海上运输通道安全的重要环节,为科学全面评价我国海上运输关键节点的安全状况,本文建立评价指标体系,引入投影寻踪方法构建安全评价模型,通过遗传算法求解,对关键节点的安全状况进行评价,并挖掘相关海峡的主要安全威胁.评价结果表明,涉及我国重要物资如石油、集装箱运输的霍尔木兹海峡、马六甲海峡、曼德海峡及苏伊士运河的安全水平相对较低,而且印尼地区的龙目海峡、巽他海峡及望加锡海峡的安全状况也相对较差.评价结果为我国制定保障海上运输安全措施及做出相关管理决策提供科学依据,对提高我国海上运输安全性与可靠性具有重要意义.Safety evaluation of maritime transport key nodes is an important part of protecting China＇s maritime transport passage. In order to play a scientific and comprehensive safety evaluation of the key nodes of China＇s maritime transport, an index system is established, and the projection pursuit model and genetic algorithm are applied to evaluate the security of key nodes. Furthermore, the main security threats of the related straits are excavated. The evaluation results indicate that： the security situation of the Strait of Hormuz, Malacca, Peter and the Suez Canal is relatively poor, which have a very important impact on China＇s maritime transportation of oil, container and other important materials; in addition, the Lombok Strait, the Sunda Strait and the Makassar Strait also have relatively low level of security, which are all in Indonesia. The evaluation results provide scientific basis for China to develop measures to protect the safety of maritime transport and make related management decisions, and have great significance to improve China＇s maritime transport security and reliability.

关 键 词：水路运输 安全评价 投影寻踪 关键节点 运输安全 

分 类 号：U698[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]